If Correa fires Acosta, which is all CEOs would have done in the same circumstance, would that cause a rift in the Alianz Pais that might subsequently cause the government to collapse? If so, what would happen to the draft mining laws, the constitution assembly, the negotiations with ARU and CTQ, not to mention our investments in ARU?

This is turning into one political cesspool. The best case scenario would be to keep Acosta happy for now and fire him afterwards when the constitution assembly finishes it job, but at what price though?

Love to hear your views on this situation.

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As I mentioned some time ago, I was picking up hints in the press of a split in the AP (thanks Sylvia for confirming that). I think it's fairly obvious the majority AP view is anti-mining, although what the actual percentage is I couldn't say.

The question then is, who commands the most support for broad national policies? Correa appears to have painted himself into a corner by alienating the Right, whose support he may need if push comes to shove. The tax reforms were extremely unpopular, as were the price controls and statements about cartels and other such nonsense.

Whether the Right will assist him, or simply stand back and let his program disintegrate, depends on how many seats each side expects to win in the next election. The demonstrations in Guyaquil may provide a clue here. By most accounts, the Guyaquilenos had a larger turnout, and broader participation in political and class terms. That may be enough to successfully oppose Correa in the next election, possibly running the mayor of Guyaquil (Jaime Nebot) as a candidate.

This introduces not just national, but regional issues as well. Opposition to concentration of power at the center seems to be a rallying point with large support in city and town councils. Guyaquil itself operates as a near-autonomous entity within Ecuador, and they'll fight tooth and nail to preserve that. Correa and Nebot aren't exactly the best of friends, so a compromise here is unlikely.

Incidently, Nebot is one of 50 finalists in the World Mayor Contest (which I'm sure you're all keenly following...LOL). Go here and vote for him if you think he's a good mayor: http://www.worldmayor.com

If AP disintegrates, I could see this becoming a three way race. Acosta representing the Watermellon Party, Correa as the Center-left guy, and Nebot on the right. The likely result would be no majority, a weakened executive, and government by coalition. This wouldn't necessarily be a bad outcome. Pro-mining districts (such as Zamora-Chinchipe) would advance economically, whilst the Watermellon areas would regress. This contrast would be increasingly obvious over time, to the effect that the Watermellons would lose support, since they offer no viable economic programs, just a grab-bag of slogans and childish fantasies.

A note on Eco-tourism seems appropriate here. As anyone who's travelled extensively by backpack will have noticed, eco-tourists don't have a lot of money to spend. The ones that do (Sierra Club) prefer their creature comforts, and the locals will spare no effort stripping the mountains bare (Nepal) to provide hot showers for these pampered hypocrites. Neither has what it takes to endure the kind of hardships that are routine fare for mineral explorers, a point which is not lost on native people who've had contact with both. Eco-tourists get old fast because for the most part they're whiney, self-satisfied prats. Besides, you can only entertain so many of them before your jungle home is trampled flat. OTOH, they do provide a certain amount of amusement when they encounter the local wildlife and insects...

ebear