Category: Mid-tier Producer Rating: 2.50 (Likely 3 Bagger as of 12/12/2012) Risk: Low
Argonaut Gold Incwww.argonautgoldinc.com
|
Price Data
Symbol |
Date |
Price |
Change |
52 Wk Low |
52 Wk High |
Volume |
PINK:ARNGF |
12/21/2012 |
USD |
9.650 |
0.080 |
6.360 |
11.220 |
30,827 |
TSE:AR |
12/21/2012 |
CAD |
9.570 |
0.090 |
6.400 |
11.220 |
30,658 |
|
|
Summary (from last analysis - 12/12/2012)
Argonaut Gold became a mid tier producer in 2012 (my definition). There is a lot to like about this company. Their production is forecasted to grow from 90,000 oz this year to 240,000 in 2014 and potentially 500,000 long term. That is a solid growth trend, although it will take several years to achieve. They have $43 million in cash and no debt, and $112 million in warrants that should be exercised before the December 2012 expiration. Thus, they could end the year with more than $150 million in cash to fund organic growth. With their 12 million oz of M&I resources (after a merger with Prodigy Gold in December 2012) and two low cost long life flagship mines, they have a solid base to grow from. I like their management team and I like the fact that they have 4 solid properties to explore. If they get lucky with the drill bit, they could expand their resources and those ounces will add to their valuation.
The only problem with this stock is the upside potential is somewhat limited, although I think they will be a 3 bagger long term. Their market cap jumped from $468 million to $1.1 billion in the past year. For those who got in early, let it ride. I paid $1.22 (from an investment in Pediment Exploration in August 2009) and made my goal of a 5 bagger. Now I’m hoping for a 20 bagger by 2015. As you can see, the upside potential of mining stocks is beyond what you can get in other investments. Another lesson was the time frame for my 5 bagger: almost exactly 3 years. You have to get in early and wait (3-5 years).
General Details
Financial |
12/12/2012 Last Analysis Data |
Current Data |
Change |
Item |
Value |
Value |
Updated |
Value |
Mkt. Cap (Fully Diluted): |
$1130.52M |
$1446.06M |
12/15/2012 |
$315.54M |
Total Assets: |
never |
never |
12/12/2012 |
$0.00M |
Total Liabilities: |
never |
never |
12/12/2012 |
$0.00M |
Current Assets: |
never |
never |
12/12/2012 |
$0.00M |
Current Liabilities: |
never |
never |
12/12/2012 |
$0.00M |
Total Debt: |
$0.00M |
$0.00M |
12/12/2012 |
$0.00M |
Cash: |
$43.00M |
$85.00M |
12/15/2012 |
$42.00M |
Cash Flow: |
$57.34M |
$53.99M |
never |
$-3.35M |
Cash Flow Multiple: |
19.71 |
26.78 |
never |
7.07 |
Finance within 1 year: |
|
|
12/12/2012 |
n/a |
|
Misc |
12/12/2012 Last Analysis Data |
Current Data |
Change |
Item |
Value |
Value |
Updated |
Value |
Share Price: |
$9.500 |
$9.640 |
21:12 on 12/21/2012 |
$0.14 |
Shares Oustanding: |
93,000,000 |
124,000,000 |
12/15/2012 |
31,000,000 |
Shares Fully Diluted: |
119,000,000 |
150,000,000 |
12/15/2012 |
31,000,000 |
Company Type: |
Mostly Gold |
Mostly Gold |
never |
n/a |
Production ETA: |
n/a |
n/a |
12/12/2012 |
n/a |
Capital Expenditure: |
n/a |
n/a |
12/12/2012 |
n/a |
Funding Option: |
n/a |
n/a |
12/12/2012 |
n/a |
Tax Rate: |
(guess) 30.00% |
(default) 30.00% |
12/12/2012 |
0.00% |
|
Resource Data
GOLD |
12/12/2012 Last Analysis Data |
Current Data |
Change |
Item |
Value |
Value |
Updated |
Value |
O U N C E S |
T O T A L
|
Proven & Probable: |
1.22M |
1.22M |
12/12/2012 |
0.00M |
Measured & Indicated: |
12.00M |
12.00M |
12/12/2012 |
0.00M |
Inferred: |
0.20M |
0.20M |
12/12/2012 |
0.00M |
Reserves & Resources: |
12.20M |
12.20M |
never |
0.00M |
P L A U S I B L E |
Proven & Probable: |
0.92M |
0.92M |
12/12/2012 |
0.00M |
Measured & Indicated: |
7.38M |
7.38M |
12/12/2012 |
0.00M |
Inferred: |
0.08M |
0.08M |
12/12/2012 |
0.00M |
Reserves & Resources: |
7.46M |
7.46M |
never |
0.00M |
C U R R E N T |
Annual Production: |
(guess) 90,000oz. |
(guess) 90,000oz. |
12/12/2012 |
0oz. |
Cash Cost: |
(actual) $600 |
(actual) $600 |
12/12/2012 |
$0.00 |
Extra Operating Cost: |
(actual) $200 |
(actual) $200 |
12/12/2012 |
$0.00 |
Average Grade: |
0.80 g/t |
0.80 g/t |
12/12/2012 |
n/a |
Recovery Rate: |
(guess) 75.00% |
(guess) 75.00% |
12/12/2012 |
0.00% |
F U T U R E |
Proven & Probable: |
12.00M |
12.00M |
12/12/2012 |
0.00M |
Annual Production: |
400,000 |
400,000 |
12/12/2012 |
0oz. |
Cash Cost: |
$700 |
$700 |
12/12/2012 |
$0 |
Extra Operating Cost: |
$250 |
$250 |
12/12/2012 |
$0 |
|
SILVER |
12/12/2012 Last Analysis Data |
Current Data |
Change |
Item |
Value |
Value |
Updated |
Value |
O U N C E S |
T O T A L
|
Proven & Probable: |
n/a |
n/a |
12/12/2012 |
0.00M |
Measured & Indicated: |
n/a |
n/a |
12/12/2012 |
0.00M |
Inferred: |
n/a |
n/a |
12/12/2012 |
0.00M |
Reserves & Resources: |
n/a |
n/a |
never |
0.00M |
P L A U S I B L E |
Proven & Probable: |
n/a |
n/a |
12/12/2012 |
0.00M |
Measured & Indicated: |
n/a |
n/a |
12/12/2012 |
0.00M |
Inferred: |
n/a |
n/a |
12/12/2012 |
0.00M |
Reserves & Resources: |
0.00M |
0.00M |
never |
0.00M |
C U R R E N T |
Annual Production: |
(guess) 0oz. |
(guess) 0oz. |
12/12/2012 |
0oz. |
Cash Cost: |
(guess) $10 |
(guess) $10 |
12/12/2012 |
$0.00 |
Extra Operating Cost: |
(guess) $5 |
(guess) $5 |
12/12/2012 |
$0.00 |
Average Grade: |
n/a |
n/a |
12/12/2012 |
n/a |
Recovery Rate: |
(guess) 75.00% |
(guess) 75.00% |
12/12/2012 |
0.00% |
F U T U R E |
Proven & Probable: |
0.00M |
0.00M |
12/12/2012 |
0.00M |
Annual Production: |
n/a |
n/a |
12/12/2012 |
n/a |
Cash Cost: |
n/a |
n/a |
12/12/2012 |
n/a |
Extra Operating Cost: |
n/a |
n/a |
12/12/2012 |
n/a |
|
Property
Last Analysis Data (12/12/2012) |
Stage |
Location |
Name |
Owned |
Type |
Gold |
Silver |
Production |
Durando, Mexico |
El Castillo |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
|
Development |
Hermosillo, Mexico |
La Colorada |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
![]() |
Development |
San Antonio, Mexico |
San Antonio |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
|
Exploration |
Geraldton, Canada |
Beardmore Geraldton Regional |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
|
Exploration |
Thunder Bay, Ontario, Canada |
Hercules |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
|
Exploration |
Wawa, Ontario, Canada |
Magino |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
|
Exploration |
Long Lac, Ontario, Canada |
Milestone |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
|
Exploration |
Canada |
West-Millennium |
100% |
n/a |
|
|
Exploration |
Canada |
Wildgoose |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
|
Exploration |
Caborca, Mexico |
Caborca Copper |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
|
Exploration |
Hermosillo, Mexico |
Cochis Gold |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
![]() |
Exploration |
Tajitos, Mexico |
Daniel |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
![]() |
Exploration |
Sahuaripa, Mexico |
El Compa |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
|
Exploration |
Caborca, Mexico |
Glor |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
|
Exploration |
Culiacan, Mexico |
La Fortuna |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
|
Exploration |
Sonora, Mexico |
Llano Colorado |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
|
Exploration |
Caborca, Mexico |
Manuel and Mel |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
|
Exploration |
Magdelena Area, Mexico |
Nopal |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
|
Exploration |
Caborca, Mexico |
Texson |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
![]() |
Exploration |
Douglas, Mexico |
Valenzuela Silver Gold |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
![]() |
|
Current Data |
Stage |
Location |
Name |
Owned |
Type |
Gold |
Silver |
Production |
Durando, Mexico |
El Castillo |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
|
Development |
Hermosillo, Mexico |
La Colorada |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
![]() |
Development |
San Antonio, Mexico |
San Antonio |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
|
Exploration |
Geraldton, Canada |
Beardmore Geraldton Regional |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
|
Exploration |
Thunder Bay, Ontario, Canada |
Hercules |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
|
Exploration |
Wawa, Ontario, Canada |
Magino |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
|
Exploration |
Long Lac, Ontario, Canada |
Milestone |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
|
Exploration |
Canada |
West-Millennium |
100% |
n/a |
|
|
Exploration |
Canada |
Wildgoose |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
|
Exploration |
Caborca, Mexico |
Caborca Copper |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
|
Exploration |
Hermosillo, Mexico |
Cochis Gold |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
![]() |
Exploration |
Tajitos, Mexico |
Daniel |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
![]() |
Exploration |
Sahuaripa, Mexico |
El Compa |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
|
Exploration |
Caborca, Mexico |
Glor |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
|
Exploration |
Culiacan, Mexico |
La Fortuna |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
|
Exploration |
Sonora, Mexico |
Llano Colorado |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
|
Exploration |
Caborca, Mexico |
Manuel and Mel |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
|
Exploration |
Magdelena Area, Mexico |
Nopal |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
|
Exploration |
Caborca, Mexico |
Texson |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
![]() |
Exploration |
Douglas, Mexico |
Valenzuela Silver Gold |
100% |
n/a |
![]() |
![]() |
|
Profitability (by resource)
Proven & Probable |
12/12/2012 Last Analysis Data |
Current Data |
Change |
Item |
Value |
Value |
Updated |
Value |
Percentage Gold: |
100.00% |
100.00% |
n/a |
0.00% |
Percentage Silver: |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
0.00% |
Total (Gold Eq. Oz.): |
1.22M |
1.22M |
n/a |
0.00M |
Total (Silver Eq. Oz.): |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
4.14M |
P L A U S I B L E |
Gold Eq. Oz.: |
0.92M |
0.92M |
n/a |
0.00M |
Silver Eq. Oz.: |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
3.11M |
Profit (Gold): |
$582.99M |
$548.91M |
n/a |
$-34.08M |
Profit (Silver): |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
$0.00M |
Total Profit: |
$582.99M |
$548.91M |
n/a |
$-34.08M |
Profit Per Share (Gold): |
$4.90 |
$3.66 |
n/a |
$-1.24 |
Profit Per Share (Silver): |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
$0.00 |
Total Profit Per Share: |
$4.90 |
$3.66 |
n/a |
$-1.24 |
Total Free Profit Per Share: |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
n/a |
$0.00 |
FD Mkt. Cap / Gold Eq.: |
$1235.54 |
$1580.39 |
n/a |
$344.85 |
FD Mkt. Cap / Silver Eq.: |
$23.83 |
$28.60 |
n/a |
$4.78 |
FD Mkt. Cap / Per Metal as % Spot Gold: |
72.24% |
95.38% |
n/a |
23.13% |
|
Measured & Indicated |
12/12/2012 Last Analysis Data |
Current Data |
Change |
Item |
Value |
Value |
Updated |
Value |
Percentage Gold: |
100.00% |
100.00% |
n/a |
0.00% |
Percentage Silver: |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
0.00% |
Total (Gold Eq. Oz.): |
12.00M |
12.00M |
n/a |
0.00M |
Total (Silver Eq. Oz.): |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
40.75M |
P L A U S I B L E |
Gold Eq. Oz.: |
7.38M |
7.38M |
n/a |
0.00M |
Silver Eq. Oz.: |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
25.07M |
Profit (Gold): |
$4704.06M |
$4429.06M |
n/a |
$-274.99M |
Profit (Silver): |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
$0.00M |
Total Profit: |
$4704.06M |
$4429.06M |
n/a |
$-274.99M |
Profit Per Share (Gold): |
$39.53 |
$29.53 |
n/a |
$-10.00 |
Profit Per Share (Silver): |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
$0.00 |
Total Profit Per Share: |
$39.53 |
$29.53 |
n/a |
$-10.00 |
Total Free Profit Per Share: |
$30.16 |
$19.96 |
n/a |
$-10.20 |
FD Mkt. Cap / Gold Eq.: |
$153.12 |
$195.86 |
n/a |
$42.74 |
FD Mkt. Cap / Silver Eq.: |
$2.95 |
$3.54 |
n/a |
$0.59 |
FD Mkt. Cap / Per Metal as % Spot Gold: |
8.95% |
11.82% |
n/a |
2.87% |
|
Reserves & Resources |
12/12/2012 Last Analysis Data |
Current Data |
Change |
Item |
Value |
Value |
Updated |
Value |
Percentage Gold: |
100.00% |
100.00% |
n/a |
0.00% |
Percentage Silver: |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
0.00% |
Total (Gold Eq. Oz.): |
12.20M |
12.20M |
n/a |
0.00M |
Total (Silver Eq. Oz.): |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
41.43M |
P L A U S I B L E |
Gold Eq. Oz.: |
7.46M |
7.46M |
n/a |
0.00M |
Silver Eq. Oz.: |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
25.33M |
Profit (Gold): |
$4751.84M |
$4474.05M |
n/a |
$-277.79M |
Profit (Silver): |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
$0.00M |
Total Profit: |
$4751.84M |
$4474.05M |
n/a |
$-277.79M |
Profit Per Share (Gold): |
$39.93 |
$29.83 |
n/a |
$-10.10 |
Profit Per Share (Silver): |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
$0.00 |
Total Profit Per Share: |
$39.93 |
$29.83 |
n/a |
$-10.10 |
Total Free Profit Per Share: |
$30.56 |
$20.26 |
n/a |
$-10.30 |
FD Mkt. Cap / Gold Eq.: |
$151.58 |
$193.89 |
n/a |
$42.31 |
FD Mkt. Cap / Silver Eq.: |
$2.92 |
$3.51 |
n/a |
$0.59 |
FD Mkt. Cap / Per Metal as % Spot Gold: |
8.86% |
11.70% |
n/a |
2.84% |
Future Valuation (Cash Flow & Totals)
Totals |
12/12/2012 Last Analysis Data |
Current Data |
Change |
Item |
Value |
Value |
Updated |
Value |
Current R & R Valuation: |
$1913.21M |
$1853.69M |
never |
$-59.53M |
F U T U R E |
FD Mkt. Cap: |
$4,500M |
$4,500M |
n/a |
$0M |
FD Mkt. Cap Growth: |
298% |
211% |
n/a |
-87% |
Current FD Mkt. Cap / Gold Eq. Reserves: |
94.21 |
120.50 |
n/a |
26.29 |
Current FD Mkt. Cap / Silver Eq. Reserves: |
3.77 |
4.82 |
n/a |
1.05 |
Current FD Mkt. Cap / Gold Eq. Production: |
2826.30 |
3615.14 |
n/a |
788.85 |
Current FD Mkt. Cap / Silver Eq. Production: |
113.05 |
144.61 |
n/a |
31.55 |
Gold P & P Reserves: |
12.00M |
12.00M |
12/12/2012 |
0.00M |
Silver P & P Reserves: |
0.00M |
0.00M |
12/12/2012 |
0.00M |
|
Cash Flow |
12/12/2012 Last Analysis Data |
Current Data |
Change |
Item |
Value |
Value |
Updated |
Value |
Current: |
$57.34M |
$53.99M |
never |
$-3.35M |
Current Multiple: |
19.71 |
26.78 |
never |
7.07 |
F U T U R E |
@ current prices: |
$212.86M |
$197.96M |
never |
$-14.90M |
Multiple @ current prices: |
5.31 |
7.30 |
never |
1.99 |
@ future prices: |
$372.00M |
$372.00M |
never |
$0.00M |
Multiple @ future prices: |
3.04 |
3.89 |
never |
0.85 |
|
|