Welcome To The Argonaut Gold Inc. HUB On AGORACOM

"Friendly aquisition" of Prodigy Gold (Oct. 2012) / > 100k ounces in 2012

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Argonaut Gold Inc

Category: Mid-tier Producer
Rating: 2.50 (Likely 3 Bagger as of 12/12/2012)
Risk: Low
Argonaut Gold Inc
www.argonautgoldinc.com
Profile
Notes
Wiki

Price Data

Symbol Date Price Change 52 Wk Low 52 Wk High Volume
PINK:ARNGF 12/21/2012 USD 9.650 0.080 6.360 11.220 30,827
TSE:AR 12/21/2012 CAD 9.570 0.090 6.400 11.220 30,658

Summary (from last analysis - 12/12/2012)

Argonaut Gold became a mid tier producer in 2012 (my definition). There is a lot to like about this company. Their production is forecasted to grow from 90,000 oz this year to 240,000 in 2014 and potentially 500,000 long term. That is a solid growth trend, although it will take several years to achieve. They have $43 million in cash and no debt, and $112 million in warrants that should be exercised before the December 2012 expiration. Thus, they could end the year with more than $150 million in cash to fund organic growth. With their 12 million oz of M&I resources (after a merger with Prodigy Gold in December 2012) and two low cost long life flagship mines, they have a solid base to grow from. I like their management team and I like the fact that they have 4 solid properties to explore. If they get lucky with the drill bit, they could expand their resources and those ounces will add to their valuation.

The only problem with this stock is the upside potential is somewhat limited, although I think they will be a 3 bagger long term. Their market cap jumped from $468 million to $1.1 billion in the past year. For those who got in early, let it ride. I paid $1.22 (from an investment in Pediment Exploration in August 2009) and made my goal of a 5 bagger. Now I’m hoping for a 20 bagger by 2015. As you can see, the upside potential of mining stocks is beyond what you can get in other investments. Another lesson was the time frame for my 5 bagger: almost exactly 3 years. You have to get in early and wait (3-5 years).

General Details

Financial 12/12/2012
Last
Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Mkt. Cap (Fully Diluted): $1130.52M $1446.06M 12/15/2012 $315.54M
Total Assets: never never 12/12/2012 $0.00M
Total Liabilities: never never 12/12/2012 $0.00M
Current Assets: never never 12/12/2012 $0.00M
Current Liabilities: never never 12/12/2012 $0.00M
Total Debt: $0.00M $0.00M 12/12/2012 $0.00M
Cash: $43.00M $85.00M 12/15/2012 $42.00M
Cash Flow: $57.34M $53.99M never $-3.35M
Cash Flow Multiple: 19.71 26.78 never 7.07
Finance within 1 year: 12/12/2012 n/a
Misc 12/12/2012
Last
Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Share Price: $9.500 $9.640 21:12 on 12/21/2012 $0.14
Shares Oustanding: 93,000,000 124,000,000 12/15/2012 31,000,000
Shares Fully Diluted: 119,000,000 150,000,000 12/15/2012 31,000,000
Company Type: Mostly Gold Mostly Gold never n/a
Production ETA: n/a n/a 12/12/2012 n/a
Capital Expenditure: n/a n/a 12/12/2012 n/a
Funding Option: n/a n/a 12/12/2012 n/a
Tax Rate: (guess) 30.00% (default) 30.00% 12/12/2012 0.00%

Resource Data

GOLD 12/12/2012
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
O
U
N
C
E
S
T
O
T
A
L
Proven & Probable: 1.22M 1.22M 12/12/2012 0.00M
Measured & Indicated: 12.00M 12.00M 12/12/2012 0.00M
Inferred: 0.20M 0.20M 12/12/2012 0.00M
Reserves & Resources: 12.20M 12.20M never 0.00M
P
L
A
U
S
I
B
L
E
Proven & Probable: 0.92M 0.92M 12/12/2012 0.00M
Measured & Indicated: 7.38M 7.38M 12/12/2012 0.00M
Inferred: 0.08M 0.08M 12/12/2012 0.00M
Reserves & Resources: 7.46M 7.46M never 0.00M
C
U
R
R
E
N
T
Annual Production: (guess)
90,000oz.
(guess)
90,000oz.
12/12/2012 0oz.
Cash Cost: (actual) $600 (actual) $600 12/12/2012 $0.00
Extra Operating Cost: (actual) $200 (actual) $200 12/12/2012 $0.00
Average Grade: 0.80 g/t 0.80 g/t 12/12/2012 n/a
Recovery Rate: (guess) 75.00% (guess) 75.00% 12/12/2012 0.00%
F
U
T
U
R
E
Proven & Probable: 12.00M 12.00M 12/12/2012 0.00M
Annual Production: 400,000 400,000 12/12/2012 0oz.
Cash Cost: $700 $700 12/12/2012 $0
Extra Operating Cost: $250 $250 12/12/2012 $0
SILVER 12/12/2012
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
O
U
N
C
E
S
T
O
T
A
L
Proven & Probable: n/a n/a 12/12/2012 0.00M
Measured & Indicated: n/a n/a 12/12/2012 0.00M
Inferred: n/a n/a 12/12/2012 0.00M
Reserves & Resources: n/a n/a never 0.00M
P
L
A
U
S
I
B
L
E
Proven & Probable: n/a n/a 12/12/2012 0.00M
Measured & Indicated: n/a n/a 12/12/2012 0.00M
Inferred: n/a n/a 12/12/2012 0.00M
Reserves & Resources: 0.00M 0.00M never 0.00M
C
U
R
R
E
N
T
Annual Production: (guess)
0oz.
(guess)
0oz.
12/12/2012 0oz.
Cash Cost: (guess) $10 (guess) $10 12/12/2012 $0.00
Extra Operating Cost: (guess) $5 (guess) $5 12/12/2012 $0.00
Average Grade: n/a n/a 12/12/2012 n/a
Recovery Rate: (guess) 75.00% (guess) 75.00% 12/12/2012 0.00%
F
U
T
U
R
E
Proven & Probable: 0.00M 0.00M 12/12/2012 0.00M
Annual Production: n/a n/a 12/12/2012 n/a
Cash Cost: n/a n/a 12/12/2012 n/a
Extra Operating Cost: n/a n/a 12/12/2012 n/a

Property

Last Analysis Data (12/12/2012)
Stage Location Name Owned Type Gold Silver
Production Durando, Mexico El Castillo 100% n/a
Development Hermosillo, Mexico La Colorada 100% n/a
Development San Antonio, Mexico San Antonio 100% n/a
Exploration Geraldton, Canada Beardmore Geraldton Regional 100% n/a
Exploration Thunder Bay, Ontario, Canada Hercules 100% n/a
Exploration Wawa, Ontario, Canada Magino 100% n/a
Exploration Long Lac, Ontario, Canada Milestone 100% n/a
Exploration Canada West-Millennium 100% n/a
Exploration Canada Wildgoose 100% n/a
Exploration Caborca, Mexico Caborca Copper 100% n/a
Exploration Hermosillo, Mexico Cochis Gold 100% n/a
Exploration Tajitos, Mexico Daniel 100% n/a
Exploration Sahuaripa, Mexico El Compa 100% n/a
Exploration Caborca, Mexico Glor 100% n/a
Exploration Culiacan, Mexico La Fortuna 100% n/a
Exploration Sonora, Mexico Llano Colorado 100% n/a
Exploration Caborca, Mexico Manuel and Mel 100% n/a
Exploration Magdelena Area, Mexico Nopal 100% n/a
Exploration Caborca, Mexico Texson 100% n/a
Exploration Douglas, Mexico Valenzuela Silver Gold 100% n/a
Current Data
Stage Location Name Owned Type Gold Silver
Production Durando, Mexico El Castillo 100% n/a
Development Hermosillo, Mexico La Colorada 100% n/a
Development San Antonio, Mexico San Antonio 100% n/a
Exploration Geraldton, Canada Beardmore Geraldton Regional 100% n/a
Exploration Thunder Bay, Ontario, Canada Hercules 100% n/a
Exploration Wawa, Ontario, Canada Magino 100% n/a
Exploration Long Lac, Ontario, Canada Milestone 100% n/a
Exploration Canada West-Millennium 100% n/a
Exploration Canada Wildgoose 100% n/a
Exploration Caborca, Mexico Caborca Copper 100% n/a
Exploration Hermosillo, Mexico Cochis Gold 100% n/a
Exploration Tajitos, Mexico Daniel 100% n/a
Exploration Sahuaripa, Mexico El Compa 100% n/a
Exploration Caborca, Mexico Glor 100% n/a
Exploration Culiacan, Mexico La Fortuna 100% n/a
Exploration Sonora, Mexico Llano Colorado 100% n/a
Exploration Caborca, Mexico Manuel and Mel 100% n/a
Exploration Magdelena Area, Mexico Nopal 100% n/a
Exploration Caborca, Mexico Texson 100% n/a
Exploration Douglas, Mexico Valenzuela Silver Gold 100% n/a

Profitability (by resource)

Proven &
Probable
12/12/2012
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Percentage Gold: 100.00% 100.00% n/a 0.00%
Percentage Silver: n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Total (Gold Eq. Oz.): 1.22M 1.22M n/a 0.00M
Total (Silver Eq. Oz.): n/a n/a n/a 4.14M
P
L
A
U
S
I
B
L
E
Gold Eq. Oz.: 0.92M 0.92M n/a 0.00M
Silver Eq. Oz.: n/a n/a n/a 3.11M
Profit (Gold): $582.99M $548.91M n/a $-34.08M
Profit (Silver): n/a n/a n/a $0.00M
Total Profit: $582.99M $548.91M n/a $-34.08M
Profit Per Share (Gold): $4.90 $3.66 n/a $-1.24
Profit Per Share (Silver): n/a n/a n/a $0.00
Total Profit Per Share: $4.90 $3.66 n/a $-1.24
Total Free Profit Per Share: $0.00 $0.00 n/a $0.00
FD Mkt. Cap / Gold Eq.: $1235.54 $1580.39 n/a $344.85
FD Mkt. Cap / Silver Eq.: $23.83 $28.60 n/a $4.78
FD Mkt. Cap / Per Metal
as % Spot Gold:
72.24% 95.38% n/a 23.13%
Measured &
Indicated
12/12/2012
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Percentage Gold: 100.00% 100.00% n/a 0.00%
Percentage Silver: n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Total (Gold Eq. Oz.): 12.00M 12.00M n/a 0.00M
Total (Silver Eq. Oz.): n/a n/a n/a 40.75M
P
L
A
U
S
I
B
L
E
Gold Eq. Oz.: 7.38M 7.38M n/a 0.00M
Silver Eq. Oz.: n/a n/a n/a 25.07M
Profit (Gold): $4704.06M $4429.06M n/a $-274.99M
Profit (Silver): n/a n/a n/a $0.00M
Total Profit: $4704.06M $4429.06M n/a $-274.99M
Profit Per Share (Gold): $39.53 $29.53 n/a $-10.00
Profit Per Share (Silver): n/a n/a n/a $0.00
Total Profit Per Share: $39.53 $29.53 n/a $-10.00
Total Free Profit Per Share: $30.16 $19.96 n/a $-10.20
FD Mkt. Cap / Gold Eq.: $153.12 $195.86 n/a $42.74
FD Mkt. Cap / Silver Eq.: $2.95 $3.54 n/a $0.59
FD Mkt. Cap / Per Metal
as % Spot Gold:
8.95% 11.82% n/a 2.87%

Reserves &
Resources
12/12/2012
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Percentage Gold: 100.00% 100.00% n/a 0.00%
Percentage Silver: n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Total (Gold Eq. Oz.): 12.20M 12.20M n/a 0.00M
Total (Silver Eq. Oz.): n/a n/a n/a 41.43M
P
L
A
U
S
I
B
L
E
Gold Eq. Oz.: 7.46M 7.46M n/a 0.00M
Silver Eq. Oz.: n/a n/a n/a 25.33M
Profit (Gold): $4751.84M $4474.05M n/a $-277.79M
Profit (Silver): n/a n/a n/a $0.00M
Total Profit: $4751.84M $4474.05M n/a $-277.79M
Profit Per Share (Gold): $39.93 $29.83 n/a $-10.10
Profit Per Share (Silver): n/a n/a n/a $0.00
Total Profit Per Share: $39.93 $29.83 n/a $-10.10
Total Free Profit Per Share: $30.56 $20.26 n/a $-10.30
FD Mkt. Cap / Gold Eq.: $151.58 $193.89 n/a $42.31
FD Mkt. Cap / Silver Eq.: $2.92 $3.51 n/a $0.59
FD Mkt. Cap / Per Metal
as % Spot Gold:
8.86% 11.70% n/a 2.84%

Future Valuation (Cash Flow & Totals)

Totals 12/12/2012
Last
Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Current R & R Valuation: $1913.21M $1853.69M never $-59.53M
F
U
T
U
R
E
FD Mkt. Cap: $4,500M $4,500M n/a $0M
FD Mkt. Cap Growth: 298% 211% n/a -87%
Current FD Mkt. Cap / Gold Eq. Reserves: 94.21 120.50 n/a 26.29
Current FD Mkt. Cap / Silver Eq. Reserves: 3.77 4.82 n/a 1.05
Current FD Mkt. Cap / Gold Eq. Production: 2826.30 3615.14 n/a 788.85
Current FD Mkt. Cap / Silver Eq. Production: 113.05 144.61 n/a 31.55
Gold P & P Reserves: 12.00M 12.00M 12/12/2012 0.00M
Silver P & P Reserves: 0.00M 0.00M 12/12/2012 0.00M
Cash Flow 12/12/2012
Last
Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Current: $57.34M $53.99M never $-3.35M
Current Multiple: 19.71 26.78 never 7.07
F
U
T
U
R
E
@ current prices: $212.86M $197.96M never $-14.90M
Multiple @ current prices: 5.31 7.30 never 1.99
@ future prices: $372.00M $372.00M never $0.00M
Multiple @ future prices: 3.04 3.89 never 0.85
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