15 billion more than Jansen eh for 6 mines...... not a bad deal... with Doyle moving out and a Tilk at the helm...perhaps this is a possibility....

First, the math. Jansen is going to cost something like $15-billion (U.S.). That's more than half the market capitalization of Potash Corp., which stands at $29-billion.

Throw on a healthy premium to ensure an offer is popular with management and shareholders, and the value would be more like $40-billion. The real cost would be much less.

Perhaps $10-billion of that could be paid for by selling off Potash Corp.'s operations in phosphate and nitrogen, which BHP has not expressed interest in, as well as Potash Corp.'s stakes in international fertilizer producers. Mothballing Jansen, which can be done once the main shaft is complete, could save another $10-billion, and provide the side benefits of reducing future supply and being bullish for potash prices.

Potash Corp. also produces free cash flow that could be used to defray the costs, especially as potash prices rebound and as the company's big expansion projects come to a close. JPMorgan expects the company to have a free cash flow yield of 4.7 per cent this year and 6.5 per cent next year.

So for roughly $15-billion more than building Jansen, BHP could own the world's biggest potash supplier and its six mines.