Great work.

Allana will bear debt servicing costs, but it's not really possible to factor that in since we don't know the terms at this time. And there's the potential for a reduction in opex due to a new rail line, which would be all kinds of awesome.

P/E will be much higher than 15 in 2017 if they meet production targets seeing as a doubling of production is around the corner. And then there's the expectation of take out that will drive the SP higher.

If the budget and production targets are more or less met I think ICL will take out Allana as in Q1 2017 - the warrants having a 3 year expiry. 3 years allows ICL to avoid construction risk (let's say a badly overrun project) and any other macro risks that might lead them to abandon the project. But once they cash in those warrants it sends a strong signal about their future intentions. Their interests (lowest cost to take out the company) would be best served by cashing in the warrants as part of a take out offer.

Standard takeout premium is in the 40% range, so we better hope the share price is sufficiently high at that point. The one consolation is that Liberty has been in this for a very long time and will want a proper ROI for the strong committment they've shown to a high risk project. If you're anywhere near their average cost (I think it's around 60 pennies?) then you have some comfort knowing that your interests are aligned with their interests and they have clout.