West Africa faces double jeopardy

By Barry Morgan

25 March 2016 08:54 GMT

Ghana’s National Security Council and Parliament last week held joint service operations to evaluate anti-terror preparedness in a nation that has only recently begun to export oil and aims to further develop industrial credibility as a regional energy hub.

Citizens were warned of a “credible terrorist threat” to all countries in the sub-region, echoing a cautionary note sounded by UK High Commissioner Jon Benjamin that visitors to Ghana should remain “vigilant” in the wake of an “underlying threat of terrorism”.

Attacks on hotels in Burkina Faso, Mali and most recently on an Ivorian beach resort patronised by local and western conference-goers abutting Ghana’s border, shattered the illusion that Islamist terror targets only the Muslim hinterlands, eschewing the industrialised coastal belt.

In January, France’s Directorate General for External Security (DGSE) warned both Ivory Coast and Senegal that an attack was imminent and that Al Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM) was preparing to launch violent assaults in the main cities of “all the allies of France” in the region.

The warning was reiterated last week by French Premier Bernard Cazeneuve and by former US Ambassador to Nigeria John Campbell, who predicts both AQIM and its rival Islamic State (IS) will likely continue to push south.

With home-grown Nigerian terror group Boko Haram’s leader Abubakar Shekau declaring loyalty to IS and now poised to establish fresh bases to the south in Taraba State, they come closer to threatening the oil zones south of Benue — in Nigeria and in Cameroon.

Stung by events, even the US Africa Command moved last week to curtail all unofficial travel to western Africa until the end of June.

With low oil prices deterring big ticket projects and restraining the will to drill even in established plays, and with local content prematurely weighing in before a drop of commercial oil is declared, the region seems sails-set for the doldrums — and that is without the security concerns.

It is sure to get a whole lot worse before it gets better.