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Message: THE CHASE by Frances Horodelski

The chase by Frances Horodelski:

Bits and pieces. Where are Americans spending their money? Increasingly on healthcare services. According to recent studies, healthcare spending as a percent of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is now running at 20.6%, up from 15.6% in early 2000 and the highest on record. On another note, those aging boomers are pretty bullish right now with various sentiment indicators near highs including the Investors Intelligence bull/bear ratio currently at 4.22 – the ninth reading above 4 since December 2013 (according to Yardeni Research, the last time this occurred was early in 1987). The bullish figure now stands at 59.5% (the highest since July 2014). Combine that with the CNN fear/greed index which is nudging up against 80 (extreme greed) one wonders how much longer we can run higher.

Having said that, new highs all around including the MSCI World Index which is up almost 160% from the March 2009 lows. And this morning, the bulls continue to run with most of the major markets in the green and many making new highs – again. U.S. and Canadian futures are both green. Oil was slightly weaker but surprisingly resilient in the face of the continuing massive build-up in inventories. Brent has recently popped higher though on some bullish demand comments from Saudi Arabia. Gold back firmly above $1200. The U.S. dollar continues to trade in the range as it did in November before it broke out in mid-December and rose almost 8% in two months.

The calendar is full of earnings including Loblaw (beat), TD (in line with dividend hike), Canadian Tire (miss but revenue better), CIBC (beat and dividend hike), Catamaran (beat with revenue above estimates), Stantec (miss although revenue better). It also has an IBM analyst day, a speech from Dennis Lockhart (Atlanta Fed President on monetary policy and more dovish than hawkish) and the UN Security Council holding talks on North Korean sanctions. Tomorrow we get another revision on U.S. GDP.

On a less upbeat note, not everything is in new high territory. In the past week, these companies made new lows on the TSX and the S&P 500 – SNC-Lavalin, Bombardier, Genworth, Garmin, Baxter International, Assurant and Fossil – is there a homework stock or two in here? And there are a number of companies down significantly from their highs and down over the past year (energy of course but names like Google stand out as weak links). Globally, names like Diageo and Glaxo also are well off their highs.

According to Dennis Gartman, traders are watching grains as an influential weather forecaster said yesterday “the temperature this year into the corn and soybean planting season shall be unseasonably cold and that if not delayed the seeds will be planted in less-than-ideal conditions.” Something to watch if you trade the grains or the fertilizer stocks.

On the dividend front, we’re seeing dividend increases across the board this morning. Right now 75% of the S&P/TSX 60 yields more than the 10-year government of Canada bond (which yields a near record low 1.32%) with 35 companies showing three-year dividend growth at 4% or more and 1/3 of the 60 companies providing double-digit dividend growth (with Agrium at the top of the list). In the U.S. right now, about 40% of the 500 yields more than 2% - the current yield on the 10-year treasury bond.

Traders are noting with little in the way of headwinds – macro seems to be off the table for a while although the Republicans are squabbling amongst themselves in Washington on Homeland Security funding – the only direction for equity traders seems to be up! Watch your steps. CPI just out with a negative sign but generally in line in the U.S. but a little stronger in Canada, helping the Canadian dollar get a boost.

That’s it – got to run although I wish I could stay.

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