New silver major is born

Mine could be world's third largest

By Scott Wright, Zeal Llc

March 2, 2014 •

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Tahoe Resources went public on the Toronto Stock Exchange in June 2010 (it listed on the NYSE in May 2012), just in time to take part in the most spectacular surge so far in silver’s secular bull market. From silver’s launching point in July 2010, it rose a mind-boggling 177% to its April 2011 high just over $48. The only time it took a breather was the one you can see above in the beginning of 2011, a 13% correction that only lasted a few weeks.

Amidst silver’s run higher, it didn’t take long for investors to latch onto brand-new silver company Tahoe Resources’ story. And from its IPO to its own April 2011 high, TAHO soared a staggering 289%, easily outpacing silver. What I want to focus on though is the second part of this upleg, from the January 2011 correction low to its April high. Over that period TAHO gained 93%, which positively leveraged silver’s terminal ascent 1.16x.

While this leverage is nothing spectacular, it is positive nevertheless. And it is especially impressive considering most silver stocks had disconnected from silver by this time. The majority of juniors, which was what Tahoe was classified as at the time, merely consolidated sideways. And even the popular SIL Silver Miners ETF, which is comprised of the world’s premier silver producers, could only pace silver’s gains by about half over this early 2011 period. The smart money was clearly with TAHO.

So what makes Tahoe tick? Smashing fundamentals aside, TAHO is a silver stock. And it is ultimately slave to the directionality of silver. The higher the metal runs, the more the potential profits Tahoe can earn and the more its in-ground inventory is worth (with 404m ounces of resources, its inventory is quite robust).

Of course the inverse applies too. The more silver sells off, the less the potential profits and the lower the value of the in-ground inventory.

It’s therefore not surprising that TAHO ebbs and flows with its underlying metal. Unfortunately, it was birthed into a silver world rife with discord. On the other side of the euphoric upleg that Tahoe rode out of the gates of its IPO, it’s had to fight the tape of silver’s nasty three-year cyclical bear market.

From its 2011 high, silver is down a miserable 56% to this week. And sadly many of the mining stocks have fared even worse. Even SIL, comprised of the best-of-the-best miners, is down 54% from its 2011 high to this week. But with TAHO down only 12% from its 2011 high, it has defied the odds. Again, the smart money has been in this emerging major silver producer.

With the strength it exhibited in silver’s 2011 terminal ascent carrying forward into subsequent rallies, it’s easy to see how TAHO has been able to weather the silver maelstrom. Every time the metal mounted a charge, TAHO roared higher easily outpacing its gains.

This outpacing fulfills expectations that stock gains positively leverage those in the underlying metal. If they didn’t, there’d really be no reason to own them given their operational, geological, geopolitical, and financial risks, none of which come with owning bullion. It’s got to be worth your while to own the mining stocks. And owning TAHO has definitely been worth investors’ while.

In the three uplegs leading up to the current one, TAHO’s trough-to-peak gains crushed silver’s. While silver did deliver solid gains that averaged 34%, TAHO’s averaged an impressive 73%! This is excellent positive leverage, to the tune of 2.14x averaged across the three uplegs.

And this excellent leverage has continued into silver’s current young upleg. As of this week, silver has rallied 15%. And this silver strength has led to huge interest in TAHO, delivering upleg-to-date gains of 43%. This yields leverage of 2.95x, which is probably the best you’ll find in the entire sector.

Looking forward Tahoe Resources sets up nicely to continue its dominance. Every dollar that silver rises translates to $15m+ in free cash flow per year. And this is something that is irresistible to investors. If silver’s secular bull market pushes forward like it ought to, then this silver-mining juggernaut will greatly reward them.

And Tahoe will reward investors for a long time to come, with 20m+ ounces of annual production on tap over the first 11 years of Escobal’s 18-year mine life. This mine life is of course a projection based on the latest technical work. And it is expected to improve via expansions as time goes on.

Supporting a life-of-mine expansion is the fact that Escobal’s mineralization is still open in several directions. Tahoe should easily be able to renew and ultimately grow the resources to where Escobal will be producing at a 20m-ounce-per-year clip well beyond year 11.

Tahoe’s steady low-cost production will also allow it to quickly build up cash, even at today’s silver prices. And this will allow it to easily fund exploration as well as all future expansions to milling capacity without the need for external financing. A hefty treasury will also give it the ammunition to add to its portfolio via acquisition. In fact, now that Escobal’s development is complete I wouldn’t be surprised if it was already on the prowl for its next mine.

Tahoe was one of the stocks we formally recommended as a buy to our subscribers at the beginning of the year. And as of this week, this trade already has an unrealized gain of 35%. It’s not too late to buy though, there’s still plenty of room for TAHO and the other stocks to run! To check out our full book of trade recommendations and to get world-class contrarian market analysis, get your Zeal newsletter subscription today!

The bottom line is Tahoe Resources is one of the most exciting silver stocks out there. And with it recently achieving commercial production at its massive Escobal mine, on-time and on-budget, the silver industry has its newest major producer.

In addition to massive production volume, Tahoe will also be highly profitable. It is producing its silver at some of the lowest operating costs in the industry. And for this reason, its stock should deliver outsized returns to investors. TAHO has already provided spectacular positive leverage to silver. And it ought to continue to do so as the metal runs higher.