Maybe stocks at the moment have reached the timing band for important interim tops and the current bull power is pointing to the US stock market indexes being more likely to top out finally say on December 2 or 3 before a 5-8 day (S& P 500and Dow Jones, rather 10 days in the NASDAQ-100) correction maybe starts. So on Monday (tomorrow) or on Tuesday (the day after tomorrow) the correction could start visibly.

Let’s try to underpin the imminent beginning of a correction now analyzing what the 3 most important US stock indexes might be doing these coming two trading days.

For the first time in several weeks shortened Friday trading ended up with a weakness before the weekly close. The Dow Jones and the S&P 500 even sold off the all-time highs so much that they produced a minus for Friday. Only the NASDAQ-100 closed in green, very narrow to the year-highs. That just might be showing a divergence. Friday weakness in a strong uptrend per se is a sign that something is cooking.

Normally we can note that the smart money buys the weekly close in an uptrend expecting that the following week produces higher prices than on Friday. Even if the markets are totally overbought like the current ones might be, the smart money acts like that. But if the smart money doesn’t buy the Friday close – something is brewing. So if the smart money even sells into the monthly close – Friday was the last day in November, after all – this is a signal that HAS TO alert each and everyone who are stock traders!

This weakness could be showing that this conclusion is obvious concluding that the expected important interim top is made now – at least in the Dow Jones and in the S&P 500. The Dow Jones and the S&P 500 decided on Friday to start their respective correction. The NASDAQ-100 (or its future) is likely to produce another higher high again (maybe only a small lower high) on Monday or maybe Tuesday following downwards then.

But also, for the Dow Jones and the S&P 500, there could still be a higher high in December. But that will rather occur in the late month of December or towards the year-end:

Still the November candles didn’t show any sign of exhaustion. The absolutely bullish candles that closed near the highs appears to tell us that the trend is going to keep on. So assessment, with a 100% of probability, in all three indexes higher highs will have to be reckoned with and expected. They are absolutely necessary for the imminent change in trend on monthly base! Expecting this change in trend and the top for this bull not before the beginning of January.

The exuberance candles at the supposed end of a bull market are technically the first confirmation for the imminent end of a bull market. Everybody is careless, buys like crazy into the monthly close even though those markets are absolutely overbought. "Somehow it will continue, in any case prompting we get out of dangerous positions…" is what the investors are thinking now and today. Frequently, just the performance or the structure of the next candle after an exuberance candle can give the final confirmation for the definite end or the near end of the bull with the candlestick analysis. Important and meaningful candlestick reversal signals mostly appear combined. (December close is supposed to be below the November opening) we’d have a serious indication that at the high of the December candle was the top of this bull.)

The threat of an exhaustion candle, a candle with a long upper wick, is extant now indicating this might mean that especially in the NASDAQ-100, this bull’s leader, there is an extreme exhaustion risk.

Is it coincidence that exactly at the monthly close this resistance was reached the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 precisely at that moment beginning to show weakness when the NASDAQ-100 reached this exorbitant monthly resistance? No, it isn’t. We’ll see if both, the Dow and the S&P 500 are suspecting something and whether the NASDAQ-100 is going to follow on Monday or Tuesday really reacting afterwards to this horizontal resistance. Within the coming two days it may briefly prick over the current year-high at 3495.97 thus making an even higher year-high in December and turning down then. But perhaps it will just take a narrow lower high to start the decline, let’s wait and see…

A weekly close above the 3488 would newly confirm the 3550 as the main target for this bull- run. In this case the 3550 should be reached until the first week of January.

The reaction in the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones down towards the monthly close must attract the caution and attention of each trader and investor. But who would have supposed the conflict around a couple of tatty rock isles in the South China Sea to serve as the reason for the Thanksgiving top including a following deep correction.

Well, it’s not new that mankind struggles for a couple of spots on the map that look like flies’ shit. Flies’ droppings in the sea have provoked tremendous conflicts. In this occasion there are not even people living on the rock isles called "Diaoyu" and "Senkaku". These are the names of the bird breeding sites depending on whether one lives in China or Japan.

This territory quarrel as surely a matter of the existence of fish, as well. But no doubt, the cause is that every littoral state wants to bicker for rich oil and gas deposits in the big South China Sea. And again some spiritual stuff is in the game whose seed was sown into the rock heap about 600 years ago.

The threat of an armed conflict is thoroughly present in this case. The Chinese won’t put back, and wherever there are US B52 it may bang anyway. If it comes to armed incidents or the threatening behavior becomes more pronounced the markets may be shattered first. This possible conflict might make the December trading very complicated.

Can we just imagine what happens if the Chinese and Americans start shooting at each other…

If the conflict in the Chinese Sea eases soon, perhaps there will be a positive reaction of the market. A new exaggeration move in the bull-market will be very likely in that case having the potential to be the reason/trigger for the beginning of the Christmas rally.

Short-term profiteers of the China-Japan-USA-rock-isle bickering are likely to be gold and silver. The keyword is safe haven. The lows of this swing are made for the time being. 2-3 weeks of recuperation for all the gold- and silver-bulls are thinkable and likely now. Silver looks very much like a higher weekly low for the white precious metal. How long it lasts will depend on the duration and range of the now expected countertrend swing.

Now it´s CHRUNCH TIME!

If there is no surprise at opening silver is going to open at about 20$ this week.The 20$ is exactly at the currently most important double arc resistance, the upper line of the 3rd.

A look into the past – this makes the analysis extremely easy this time – shows us that the upper line of the 3rd should technically press down silver this week. The upper line of the 3rd has been an unbridgeable resistance for silver for more than a year. A weekly close above the upper line of the 3rd has never succeeded. 10x the upper line was reached or touched. Only 5x silver succeeded to trade above the upper line in the weekly time frame. A weekly close above the upper line of the 3rd would be an unequivocal signal for us that silver is going up because thus the possible higher weekly low would be confirmed.

Unsuspected up forces might arise if the powerful all-dominating resistance of the 3rd double arc on closing base were overcome finally. That’s a fact. A close above 20.30 next week would break the monster resistance definitely. A close above 20.15 next week would overcome the resistance with high probability.

A Monday opening far above 20$ - about 20.10-20.20 would be another serious hint that it is going upwards being the 19.56 a very important low in fact!

The final overcoming of this 3rd double arc will facilitate a maximum upwards potential of about 26$. It’s a fact.

Surely silver is going to crack this resistance finally coming week or the week after next. Whether the maximum upwards potential will be reached in that case is quite another kettle of fish. Let’s wait for one thing after another…

Of course – and this wouldn’t be any surprise, because after all a trend continuation is always more likely than a change in trend – the resistance of the upper line of the 3rd may drive silver newly down, beginning on Monday. A daily close below 19.70 during the next 5 trading days may lead silver – and gold as well – to the intention to continue the downtrends till shortly before X-mas.

Before the weekly signal, the decision will be made whether it is going up now in the daily time frame. The signalers will be the currently dominating downtrend lines. Gold and silver are standing shortly before their overcoming. Interpreting the situation, Monday already or Tuesday at the latest should be able to generate a first daily close above the currently dominating downtrend lines = confirmed change in trend on daily base:

Theoretic short-term up target of this simple signaler is 21.00-21.30 in the daily time frame for silver and1290-1270 for gold.

Looking at the real world costs of mining one ounce of physical gold, to the HUI hitting new lows while major stock market indexes soar to new highs. It’s been a multi-year bloodletting for anyone who owns mining stocks, and with so many Mining Resources back down near IPO price, brutely beaten down, for the unloved precious metals mining sector — making a contrarian player lick his chops.

Yet Mining Owners say, ‘These cycles are necessary and create opportunities… we need these down periods because these are the windows where you can substantially grow your company, you can acquire assets for cents on the dollar.”