Specific Stocks "HAMMERING" Out a Bottom
posted on
May 14, 2013 08:12PM
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Specific Stocks "Hammering" Out a Bottom |
Used in the right context, the hammer candlestick can be a valuable signal that a turn-around is in the making. While the hammer can be used to signal a trend change on the long-term charts, I find it much more useful for finding swing trade candidates. In the latter case the hammer acts as a signal indicating that buying is likely to overtake selling for a few days to weeks, or until a profit target is reached. |
Ametek (NYSE:AME) has been performing great overall, nearing doubling in price since October 2011, but the stock has been in decline much of April. The April 30 hammer pattern signals a re-entry into what could be another bull move. Stepping higher since the April 19 low, the stock seems to have found some buying support, and the hammer presents a likely low-risk entry. Like Helmerich and Payne, this trade sets up both as a swing and longer-term trade. For the swing, I'm looking at a stop level near $40.25 with a target between $41.40 and $41.60. For the longer-term trade: a stop near $40.25 or $39.50 and a target near $43.75.
Flour (NYSE:FLR) formed an interesting candlestick on April 30, because it occurs just after a recent low (April 22 at $53.50) and the overall trend is up based on progressively higher major lows in June and November 2012, and now potentially April 2013. The strong selling in April has subsided and a potential long trade exists, but ideally I want to see the price move and preferably close, above $57.30. If that happens, I like the long. A stop loss order can be placed at $55.60, just below the hammer low, or at $53.50 for longer-term trades. Two targets are $59.50 and $61 for the swing trade and if the overall uptrend resumes here, $68 to $69 is the target longer term.
Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX): Unlike the other three stocks, this one is in an overall downtrend, with the hammer pointing to a potential short-term reprieve from the selling. Since this is a counter-trend trade, I like it less, but it's still a valid signal. The long-term downtrend is entrenched, but selling escalated in the middle of April. The hammer on April 30 occurs at a point where the ETF has already rallied off the April 17 low at $27.27 and, therefore, the hammer represents a potential higher low for the ETF - a requirement for a potential trend change. The upside target, should the bear market rally commence, is between $31.50 and $34. At or before $34 I expect selling to resume. Given the risk of the trade I'd keep the stop level fairly tight, just below the hammer low at $28.
The Bottom Line |
Hammers indicate a potential escalation in buying interest. Ideally, I like to the see the pattern occur in an overall uptrend after a pullback has occurred, but it can also be used to signal a rally in a falling stock. The nice thing about trading with the overall trend is that if the trend resumes, a small profit swing trade can turn into a potentially larger profit longer-term trade. When you fight the trend, you're not likely to get that sort of opportunity too often. Hammers aren't a perfect signal, though, and don't guarantee a turnaround. Always control the risk and ideally look for another price confirmation signal that the next move is likely to be higher. |