There's another element in play here that isn't mentioned in the article: Demographics.

As the boomer generation retires and passes from the scene, so does the wealth they've accumlated, some of which went into stocks over the last two or three decades. Question is, are the heirs to these estates more likely to put that money back in stocks, or pay down their mortgage and fund their kid's education? Remember, there's less discretionary income amongst Gen-X and Y than the boomers had, a reflection of the weak employment picture, which isn't likely to change very soon. That will have an impact on their priorities, which puts stocks further down the list, if they're even on it.

Add to this the excess of equities (not just in mining but across the board) at the end of a boom and what you get as aftermath is not necessarily a bust, but most definitely a consolidation which takes out a lot of weak hands. This translates into a greater need to do your homework, plus accept lower returns over longer horizons than in the previous boom. It sucks, but it is what it is.

Sorry to sound so gloomy, but I feel you have to look at all sides of the equation, not just whether China is slowing or good ore is getting harder to find. That's probably true as well, but demographics also play a role.

The other element of course is confidence, and we've seen that badly eroded, if not completely washed away over the last few years. Now they just take your money in violation of all principle and even of law. No one goes to jail, everyone gets their bonus, and we're expected to not notice? I'm sorry, it's so in your face at this point that only a complete fool can't see it.

Anyway, I could go on but I think you get the idea. In short, we've entered one of those times where you have to be very sharp and on your game if you're going to make any money. Otherwise, you'll just end up giving it all back.

ebear