EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE: Is 2013 a post-crisis year?
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Jan 11, 2013 12:01AM
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European perspective: Is 2013 a post-crisis year?
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The original version of this article was written by Dan Morris, a UK-based global strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management. The article is a snapshot from a report in an email newsletter dated 10 December 2012.
Could 2013 be the first "post-crisis" year for markets? Some signs are very encouraging. Yields on peripheral market debt have fallen sharply following September's announcement of the outright monetary transactions (OMT) programme by European Central Bank president Mario Draghi.
After numerous extreme spikes over the last couple years, the S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) is now below its long-run average. Credit default swaps on European banks have declined to July 2011 levels. The latest (though not last) Greek aid tranche has been distributed.
The risk of a chaotic break-up of the eurozone has clearly receded and not only because of more forceful intervention by eurozone leaders (however tardy).
The economic imbalances that precipitated the crisis are also correcting. Italy and Spain are running trade surpluses with the eurozone. Greece's primary budget (before making interest payments) is in surplus year-to-date.
A more benign environment in Europe will be supported by ongoing liquidity from the US Federal Reserve.
This liquidity will provide support for risk assets generally, but in particular equities (both in the US and emerging markets) and indirectly higher-yielding fixed income as investors look to alternatives to investment-grade debt for yield.
The recovery that began in China in the first quarter of 2012 should continue, though growth rates will not reach double-digit levels as in the past.
This growth will benefit China-dependent markets such as commodities, but also consumer sectors as the government increases its efforts to reorient the economy away from investment and towards household consumption.
Other large emerging markets should follow the same pattern.
The world is obviously not without risks, however. German bund yields are still at very low levels, reflecting lingering worries among some investors about the currency union.
If Spain were to decide not to ask for a bailout, or if elections in Italy lead to a government less committed to cutting the budget and reforming the economy, yields could shoot up again.
The US fiscal cliff is still a threat, though it is highly unlikely the spending cuts and tax increases would actually remain in place beyond January as a compromise of some sort is almost inevitable.
Despite these concerns, we believe investors should be moving their assets out of cash and other low yielding assets and into securities offering returns beyond inflation.
Equity valuations remain attractive, company earnings continue to grow, and many types of fixed income offer generous yields relative to core sovereign debt.