The following came from Canaccord on Nov 12, 2012:

Primero Mining (PPP : NYSE, P : TSX| BUY, Target US$13.00)

Q3/12 results miss but optimizations and long-hole mining should improve operations

We reiterate our BUY rating on Primero Mining following the release of Q3/12 results that were weaker than expected due to lower gold and silver grades at San Dimas. We expect a sequentially stronger fourth quarter as the throughput and dilution control benefit from the productivity initiative and higher grade stops are mined.

Investment highlights

Adjusted fully-diluted EPS of $0.03 vs our estimate of $0.13 and consensus of $0.12. The variance to our estimate was due to lower margins ($0.05) and higher non-cash stock-based compensation ($0.05).

Production was 25,582 oz AuEq (sales of 23,251 oz AuEq) at total cash costs of $699/oz versus our estimate of 29,600 oz AuEq at $606/oz. Production variance was largely due to lower-than-expected grades at San Dimas: 3.4 g/t gold (versus our 4.0 g/t) and 210 g/t silver (versus our 235 g/t). Sales were lower than production due to a broken crucible in the refinery, which delayed shipments into Q4 (worth ~$0.03/sh).

The benefits of the optimization program are being observed early in Q4, with October mill throughput above the design rate of 2,150 tpd and dilution of only 30% versus 2011 average of 55% and 58% assumed in reserve base.

While the production guidance range for 2012 remains unchanged, management expects to come in at the low-to-mid point of the range of 110,000 to 120,000 oz AuEq. Our 2012 EPS estimate has been revised to $0.50 from $0.57, largely due to the Q3/12 under performance.

Valuation

We maintain our target price at US$13.00 based on ~0.X our 5%/peak NAVPS estimate of US$14.22 (previously US$14.57, reduction on dilution from options-in-the money). Shares remain undervalued at 0.X 5%/spot P/NAV vs the junior average of 0.X and 3.X 2014 P/CF vs the junior average of 7.4x.

Upcoming potential catalysts

Year-end reserve update at San Dimas Optimization of underground operations and mill to 2,150 tpd (Q1/13E)

Expansion of mill to 2,500 tpd (Q1/14E)

Ongoing exploration results

Investment risks

The typical risks associated with any mining investment include commodity and exchange rate risk, and permitting, technical (development/operating) and financing risk. Investors considering an investment in Primero Mining should consider the normal development risk associated with expanding the San Dimas operation.

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P.S. Sort of keen on Duran Ventures (don't own any right now) as it is now focused on production in Peru and Rio Alto is carrying the ball in its first venture outside its $200,000+ oz/annum La Arena gold mine.

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