Welcome To The 300 Club HUB On AGORACOM

We may not make much money, but we sure have a lot of fun!

Free
Message: MORNINGSTAR .. US jousting over the yuan is misplaced.

US jousting over the yuan is misplaced

Michael Collins | 12 Jun 2012
in Share

Michael Collins is an investment commentator with Fidelity Worldwide Investment.

US Republican presumptive presidential nominee Mitt Romney has already declared what he will do on his first day in power - declare China a currency manipulator.

He first stated this intent last year when the US Senate passed a Democrat-sponsored bill aimed at China that would allow the US to slap tariffs on goods from any country with a "fundamentally misaligned" currency.

China's currency is a regular target of US politicians because Beijing's low-yuan policy is vilified as the cause of many of the US' economic problems. It is blamed for shifting an estimated 6 million jobs out of the US and for the US' trade deficit with China, which reached US$295 billion (A$275 billion) last year.

The low yuan helped China create the large current-account surpluses that enabled it to be the world's biggest holder of US debt, a fact that makes the US feel vulnerable. As Hillary Clinton once asked Kevin Rudd when he was prime minister: "How do you deal toughly with your banker?"

Whatever the correct way is for the US to deal with China and the anti-China sentiment within the US, targeting China over the yuan is an economically pointless and potentially counterproductive strategy.

The strategy is risky because China is likely to retaliate against any US steps to punish it for an undervalued yuan.

These steps include the passing in March of a bill that restores the right to impose tariffs on subsidies or dumped imports and the decision the same month with Japan and the EU [European Union] to take China to the World Trade Organisation to loosen its control over the rare-earth materials used in tech products.

Ironically, here the US and others are complaining about a Chinese export restrictions.

The world doesn't need any more trade and currency friction when it is still emerging from the global financial crisis. Any US steps to impose broad-based tariffs on Chinese imports could help push the world towards 1930s-style trade wars that wrecked the global economy.

The US is hardly innocent when it comes to influencing its currency anyway. Many countries, from Brazil to Japan to Switzerland, are manipulating their currencies these days (which is not against WTO rules) because they say the Federal Reserve's expansion of the US monetary supply is undermining the US dollar.

Why bother?

The economic pointlessness of targeting China's low-yuan policy is obvious, even allowing for the political calculation that China doesn't react well to pressure.

First, manufacturing jobs in China are unlikely to return to the US just because a higher yuan or tariffs make Chinese exports less competitive. A higher yuan will just as likely force factory owners in China to relocate to other Asian countries where labour is cheaper, rather than to the US.

Companies are already shifting jobs from China to Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Pakistan and Vietnam because costs in China, especially wages, are mounting.

China's Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security said 21 regions in China (including Beijing) in the first nine months of 2011 raised minimum wages by an average 22 per cent.

Also, the difference in productivity between the US and China - in the US, factories rely on machines while China's depend on people - means that even if jobs did return to the US from China, the number of new jobs in the US would be far fewer than the number of jobs lost in China.

Second, accusations against China over the yuan are less relevant because the currency has appreciated in recent years. The yuan has climbed about 30 per cent since 21 July 2005, when Beijing introduced a "crawling peg" to end a 10-year fixed rate of 8.28 yuan to the US dollar.

Unhappily for Romney and others, it may be hard to prove it's undervalued any more.

A higher yuan has already helped correct imbalances in the current accounts of China and the US. As the yuan and domestic demand in China have risen, China's current-account surplus has almost halved from 10.1 per cent of GDP in 2007 to an IMF [International Monetary Fund] estimate of 5.2 per cent of GDP for 2011 (while other estimates have it as low as 2.8 per cent).

Over the same period, the US current-account deficit has shrunk from 5.1 per cent of GDP to an estimated 3.1 per cent of GDP.

The third factor making the anti-China element in the US look dated is that China's higher inflation is eroding the cost advantage of China's exporters. When the prices of goods in one currency rise they are more expensive in other currencies, unless the first currency is falling in value (as the textbooks say it should).

The World Bank estimates that China's inflation (which reached an IMF-estimated 5.5 per cent in 2011) contributed to an average 6.6 per cent annual real increase in the yuan versus the US dollar from 2005 to 2010.

The Boston Consulting Group said faster inflation and higher wages in China will reduce the cost gap between the US and China from 55 per cent in 2005 to 39 per cent by 2015, a figure that goes even lower after adjusting for higher US productivity.

"China's overwhelming cost advantage over the US is shrinking fast," the group said. "Within five years ... rising Chinese wages, higher US productivity, a weaker dollar and other factors will virtually close the cost gap between the US and China for many goods."

Thankfully, when it comes to China's currency, the Republican leadership in the House of Representatives is displaying more economic sense than it showed when it took the US close to default last year during a fight over the government's debt ceiling.

US House Speaker John Boehner has refused to allow the House of Representatives a vote on the Currency Exchange Rate Oversight Reform Act that the Democrat-controlled Senate passed by 63 to 35 votes on 11 October, saying the legislation "poses a very severe risk of a trade war and unintended consequences".

There is no question the world and most Chinese people would be better off if the yuan advances even more, as Chinese purchasing power would increase. A higher yuan would help quell the financial imbalance between China and the US that has been a source of global instability for more than a decade and help control the inflation that dogs China.

Beijing seems willing to allow the yuan to rise gradually, even if China's exporters might struggle more and the value of China's US holdings drop in Chinese currency, though vested export interests are fighting to protect their cost advantage.

Hopefully, populist stunts in the US to fix a problem that's being solved anyway won't lead to worse outcomes. Guess we'll find out if Romney wins this year's presidential election.

Share
New Message
Please login to post a reply