I'm not so sure I agree, and this makes me nervous because Taleb is someone whose opinion I highly regard. Nonetheless, he seems to gloss over a few important points.

Right now, the Euro Union is effectively a free trade zone. What happens if they revert to national currencies and nationalistic policies? Given the leftward drift of recent elections, is it not possible that a race to the bottom (currency devaluation) ensues, along with trade tarrifs and various other forms of protectionism? How does a European corporation with mainly European markets deal with this? You have to overcome trade barriers and hedge currency risk, all of which adds to your costs. No such problem exists in the USA which has been a free trade union since it began, or at least since the Civil War.

Internationally, who has the greatest exposure to global markets outside the Euro zone - Euro member states, or the USA? If a large part of your earnings and tax obligations are outside the USA, don't you have a natural hedge against dollar weakness? Thinking of Coca Cola and Microsoft as two examples. Many US corporations make the bulk of their earnings outside the USA. Will they encounter the same resistance as say a German company trying to sell goods in Spain or Italy, or will they have an advantage in the sense of not being subject to lingering resentment and petty reprisals common of leftist governments?

Also, what happens to the various national bourses once they're priced in local currencies? Do they grow, or does money seek the deeper market, which is of course the USA.

Then there's the issue of currency raids. How do you stop a George Soros type attack on a weak currency? This could seriously distort exchange rates and force central banks to mount costly defense of their currencies.

I dunno... there's just so many issues here that Taleb's view comes across as a bit nonchalant. Maybe he's addressed these issues elsewhere, but I don't get a sense of it from reading the article.

Just my 3 cents (overbudget as usual)

ebear