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Message: Nomura Report re: AOI .. Africa Oil Corp. and a few highlights ...

http://www.qfpost.com/file/d?g=9o63IH7Zg

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Tertiary rift trend all ‘sewn up’

What we found interesting about this presentation was that it also highlighted the scale of Africa Oil and Tullow's acreage. The Lokichar sub basin is one of seven sub basins that together are bigger than Lake Albert, Lake Tanganyika and Victoria combined. Block 10BB alone looks bigger than the size of England.

It seems counter-intuitive to think of a rift basin as being 'sewn up,' but figuratively speaking, that is what Africa Oil and Tullow's acreage position implies. We are most excited about the tertiary rift trend, which extends north-south from the South Omo Block in Ethiopia, to Blocks 10BB and 13T (adjacent) and Block 12A in Kenya (Figure 4).

Extrapolating surface geology into the sub surface

There are structures on the edge of the lake, and a big Cretaceous outcrop in Block 10BA. This holds out the potential prospect of two plays stacked on top of each other, where the Cretaceous and Tertiary rift trends intersect. From the perspective of suitable setting for source rocks, vintage seismic shows a deep graben that is also visible on newer seismic in the South Omo Block. There are also surface seeps visible on the lake.

“Even at this early stage, it appears that not only is this first basin potentially the same size as the whole of Uganda but that its prospectivity is better than in Uganda, not worse as previously thought,”

This is a step change in opinion on the acreage for the partners - in my opinion is huge!! .. before drilling the hole, they were saying the prospectivity is only 1/3 of Uganda.. now they are saying at least if not better... just for reference, Uganda found 1.1bn boe and partners says there's another 1.3bn to go i.e. 2.4bn in total. If Lokichar basin is the same as Uganda, so we are already looking at 2.4bn in Lokichar alone - note the resource estimates were raised recently by AOI in their latest presentation.. and you have 6 more basins to go.. and that is excluding Block 12A/ 13T/9.. mind boggling really...

Sounds like in easy terms, they found alot of oil,which is more than in Uganda,BEFORE>>>>>reaching total depth.

A previously unconsidered benefit of the Tullow partnership is leverage into Tullow's relationships with the global Investment Banking community. These relationships would include fund managers and pensions manager, IE, sticky long term investors.

"We recently attended a presentation by Tullow at the Geological Society and also hosted a breakfast with the CEO of Africa Oil. Following the Ngamia discovery, we think these companies could be on the cusp of opening up a multi-billion barrel basin across Kenya and Ethiopia."

Validation of Ngamia -1's commerciality and the commercaility of the other "nine followup prospects along the Ngamia trend" is going to see early investment from the biggest institutional investors, globally.

These investors are tuned into the potential.

"If Tullow have cracked the geological code in Kenya, as they did in Uganda, then what could follow is a series of exploration successes. Tullow drilled 11 consecutive discoveries in Uganda, amounting to discovered resource of 1.1bn boe."

 Nomura raises Africa Oil price target

Whats the difference between risked and unrisked nav? In the nomura report, the risked nav is 10.2 CAD and the unrisked is at 87 CAD.

For reference, Tullow's record in Uganda is 43 out of 45 wells hit i.e. 97%.. well above the global averages of 30%+... while we may not expect the same level of success rate in Kenya (or do we?), it should be pretty high... given the very first well they just drilled is already a hit?? I love the phase "unlocking geological code" described by Nomura.. very apt..

I am hoping for a $6.50 close by the end of the week. I am hoping for news about the oil finds mentioned in the latest report by Nomura:

"With the well having encountered more oil as it drills down to target depth of 2700m, we think that the prognosis looks good" (page 5)

Next few months should be interesting.

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