New Reason GOLD Stocks will Soar
posted on
Feb 06, 2012 06:29PM
We may not make much money, but we sure have a lot of fun!
Here's a trend to consider. The following chart shows the growth in the world's population vs. the total supply of gold from around the world. By this I mean new supply from mines, not the existing holdings of refined gold of various sorts held by governments, institutions, and individuals around the world.
The population of planet Earth has grown roughly 15% just since the year 2000, while the new supply of gold from all sources (mining, scrap, de-hedging) has fallen 4.2%. The rate of growth in the world's population last year was 1.1%; while this is roughly similar to the increase in annual mine production for 2011, the trend right now is clearly for the growth in population to surpass the global supply of gold coming to market.
At the same time, demand keeps growing. China imported 3.3 million ounces of gold last November - and total global mining production outside China is just 6.4 million ounces per month. Gold bullion held by the world's central banks is at a six-year high - but it's roughly 15% below the amount they held in 1980 and has
Mining equities would be the fastest way to meet that demand.
It's already happening on a small scale. Don Coxe, the Strategy Advisor to BMO Financial Group and consistently named one of top portfolio strategists in the world, stated that, "Gold has in the past decade evolved from being a curiosity, to a speculative investment, to a sound and necessary investment." He then urged investors to "emphasize the miners at the expense of the bullion ETFs."
David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist for Gluskin Sheff, wrote, "If we accept the premise that gold is acting like a currency, in a world where central banks in many countries are bent on depreciating their own paper money, one could conclude that bullion will rally against all these units. Gold miners offer an attractive way to play this bullion rally. Because input costs tend to be heavily concentrated in the early years of a rally, history has shown that gold miners' shares tend to dramatically outperform bullion in the later stages of a gold bull market."
And it won't be just investors buying stocks; sovereign wealth funds will buy entire companies. China bought Jaguar Mining in November - a producer that can barely turn a profit - for a 74% premium, double the typical amount. China National Gold Group purchased five gold mining companies over the past four years, spending almost a half billion dollars to do so.
Then there was this from Mineweb last week: "A consortium of Indian companies led by Steel Authority of India has turned its sights to gold and copper exploration."
And this: "Afghanistan has now invited bids to develop gold mines in the provinces of Badakhshan and Ghazni..."
Keep in mind that the market cap of gold stocks is small - Apple and Exxon Mobil are each bigger than the entire gold sector. The boring water-utilities industry is almost three times larger. The sometimes-hated life insurance industry is more than 11 times bigger.
Meanwhile, most institutional investors are underweight gold and gold stocks, if they own them at all. The average pension fund devotes approximately 0.15% of its assets to gold stocks; doubling its holdings - still just one-third of one percent - would represent $47 billion of investment in the gold industry. If they wanted 1% exposure, $117 billion would flood our sector. And don't forget about the needs of hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, mutual funds, private equity funds, private wealth funds, insurance companies, ETFs, and millions of worldwide retail investors like me and you.
All these entities could easily view a shift into gold stocks as a viable way to gain exposure to precious metals. It'll be the next logical step to take - maybe the only sensible step available if the supply of physical metal remains constrained. It will feel like the most natural thing in the world for them to do.
Make no mistake: if this bull market continues, gold stocks will truly soar. An increasingly desperate clamor for exposure to gold could light a short fuse for our market sector. It's not here yet, but when the rush starts, it will be both breathtaking and life-changing.
Are you positioned?
[We're convinced that we have the best of the best producers in BIG GOLD, but it's the juniors that will bring the potentially life-changing gains that Jeff discusses above.
In January, US Mint sales of silver American Eagle coins reached 6,107,000 ounces, the second-highest monthly amount ever.
Sales in 2011 were strong as well: According to Barclays Capital, global demand for silver coins hit a record 3,800 metric tons (122.2 million troy ounces) and US sales hit a new high of 1,240 metric tons (38.6 million ounces).
Being more affordable than gold makes silver appealing, but it's not a one-way bet. A metal with extensive industrial applications, silver is vulnerable in a weak economy. Also, silver corrections
"A report by South Africa's ruling African National Congress (ANC) found that the nationalization of mines, as proposed by Julius Malema, head of the party's youth wing, would be unconstitutional and too expensive," Bloomberg reports, quoting Business Day, a Johannesburg-based newspaper. Instead, the study proposes introducing higher taxes and royalties on mining companies. The ANC's national executive committee plans to discuss the report during its meeting that started on February 1.
Nationalization talks unfortunately only add to the already shaky investment environment in the country.