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Message: FORBES NEWS LETTER

Fellow Investor,

As 2011 turned into 2012 things seemed to be finally looking up for our economy.

Foreclosure rates plunged to their lowest level last month, the unemployment rate has fallen to 8.4%, consumer confidence is slowly improving, Holiday shoppers were buzzing and the stock market ended the year with a bang.

The first two weeks of January suggest more improvement ahead.

But despite recent data that suggests the economic recovery is picking up steam, word has leaked out that some Federal Reserve officials feel more help for the U.S. economy may be necessary.

After two weeks of mini euphoria in the stock market, several economic reports came out this week revealing some problems may still hang around in 2012.

First, the Commerce Department reported that retail sales rose at the slowest pace in more than seven months in December, despite a fast start to the Holiday shopping season on Black Friday. While economists were forecasting a .3% rise in retail sales, the actual number came in at a mere .1%.

Most concerning was that spending fell in some pockets that usually get a big bump from Holiday shoppers. In December consumers forked over less money than expected at electronics and appliance stores in December as overall spending fell 3.9%.

Second, the Labor Department reported today that initial unemployment claims jumped from 375,000 to 399,000 in the first week of 2012. This was the highest reading since mid-November indicating that the economic recovery remains weak, despite the recent uptick in growth.








Third, credit card debt and student loan debt are soaring again. The Federal Reserve recently reported that student loan debt has now surpassed credit card debt totaling near $1 trillion. The average student who graduates with a four year degree may have anywhere from $24,000 to $100,000 in outstanding loans.

Credit card debt increased 8.5% in November to $5.6 billion, the biggest gain since March 2008. About 45% of bank risk managers expect credit card delinquencies to rise in 2012 as well.

Finally, Europe continues to have a monster debt problem. As challenging as the last few years have been for Europe, experts predict 2012 will be even worse. Each week European countries will need to sell an estimated $1 trillion in bonds just to replace existing debt and cover their current budget deficits.

While much of these reports are concerning, investors have seen and heard this before.

Isn't if funny how after two weeks of nothing but rising stock prices, and positive economic news to start 2012, there suddenly is a barrage of negative economic reports all released on the same day?

Just as all seems well, and average Joe investors jump in the market again, the fat cats on Wall Street with their willing accomplices in the financial media, press the "release negative news button" and suddenly stock prices are falling.

How can everything that seemed so upbeat and positive last week suddenly be under suspicion a mere one week later? Is there a vested interest in bringing down stock prices for a short period of time?

One thing is for certain. These types of games will continue in 2012, just as they have every year before.

You can either follow the big money or be left behind.

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