I don't doubt that some people will make money on shale plays. Definitely the letter writers promoting them for what is it now, the third time in a decade? Not mentioning any names, but you've all seen them in your email: 1289.7% returns - get our latest hot picks when you sign up for only $1200/year...lol. That sort of thing. I used to get that stuff in the mail for godsakes, long before Al Gore even dreamed of the internet. If you're quick you can make a buck. The trick is to not be greedy and get caught in the dump. However, since the appeal is to greed, most people do.

I also don't doubt that shale gas will contribute to domestic energy supply, at least to the extent of offsetting the decline in conventional reserves. I don't see it as an ultimate solution though, any more than the tar sands. The reason is costs, which are wildly understated. That's all part of the promotion of course, but it tends to creep into the general consensus as well, which I think is dangerous. It offers hope of a bright new future, when in reality all you're doing is buying a few more years of internal combustion lifestyle before you hit the wall.

Then there's the environmental impact, which again is hugely understated. A good portion of that happens away from urban areas so it gets swept under the rug, but the recent news from not one, but two government agencies now puts the question of earthquakes firmly on the table.

That's a new element in the mix, and as we should all realize, it's not what's true that matters, it's what people think is true. Which is to say, cause or not, one big earthquake anywhere near a shale district and it's game over for this play, if not the industry itself.

And please - don't shoot the messenger. I try to look at things from all angles, not just the bright and sunny side. If I find something I feel is significant, no matter good or bad, I report it. Investing is not so much about making money as not losing it. If I can help our people to not lose money, I figure that's almost as good as helping them make it..<g>

ebear