Is this you talking or a quote from somewhere? In either case it doesn't counter what I said, although I should probably clarify what I meant by "goldbug."

To me, a goldbug is a retail investor with little experience in the markets who buys into the stories being spun by self-declared market gurus like Casey, Taylor, Grandich, to name just a few. They may have made their fortunes in the market (not that hard when the wind is at your back) but the easier gig is selling you the dream that you too can be like them if you just buy their newsletter (then step up for the premium service).

The harsh reality is that most retail investors lose money, or at best underperform, even in a bull market. You don't hear about them because the market always trumpets the winners. It's called CONFIMATION BIAS and it's one of the most common logical fallacies people fall prey to.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

There's an old market saying: it works until it doesn't. You catch a nice wave, everything looks good, then wham... you hit the pier because you weren't looking far enough ahead. These gurus issue warnings couched in "on the one hand, on the other hand" talk so they don't look stupid when the "other hand" appears. Those that don't disappear and are never heard from again. Seen Henry Blodget on CNBC lately? More confirmation bias.

How many retail investors caught the turn in silver vs. how many were slammed into the boards? Go back to my call for silver in the 20's just after the selloff from 45. See any thumbs up on those posts? I'm not trying to play Doug Casey here, just sounding a voice of caution when it seems warranted, which trust me doesn't win any popularity contests.

I calls 'em like I sees 'em, and I call BS on 90% of these market gurus. Those guys are like real estate salesmen that tell you prices always go up. Well, we all know how that ended.

ebear