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Message: U.S. Debt ...
U.S. Debt
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Two articles that caught my attention late last week were titled ' target="_blank">China Agency Says US Already Defaulting on Debt' (reading time 3 minutes). The first article says that as a result of Quantitative Easing #2, at the end of Q1 2011 The U.S. Federal Reserve held about 14% of total outstanding federal debt, and at that point was the single-largest creditor of the U.S. Government. It further says that China ranked 2nd, holding about 12% of total outstanding federal debt. Everyone reading this must be old enough to remember one of the first of the popular computer games (early 1980's style) called Pac-Man, where a little round carnivorous ball with a < shaped mouth ran around the computer screen devouring similar looking little round balls. I was reminded of that game when I read this article. The U.S. Fed being the largest holder of U.S. Federal Debt seems circular to me. Chasing one's tail seldom is a good expenditure of energy.

Concurrently with the first article, a second article popped up which says a Chinese Rating Agency has accused the U.S. of defaulting on its debt - its reasoning being that the U.S. has done this "by allowing the dollar to weaken against other currencies". This, of course, presupposes that the U.S. Government has an alternative course of action - which among other things might be to raise interest rates in circumstances where its already struggling economy, as I see it ten feet underwater with an eight foot straw, likely would drown its Main Street consumer base by doing such a thing.

If you hold equity investments, or physical gold or silver, I suggest you take the time to read and think about the contents of both articles - particularly the second one.
Bullish Case For U.S. Economy
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A recent article titled 'http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?llr=o6tp6ncab&et=1105981500088&s=11848&e=001w9G2o6pR7Ft00VsZd1QecAzWMag5yffBsr27rL4u5Vd_Ti_xcdKJSywP-WYhTPXBKGras5zwnyPoZLdOWc9Hs3CE-brUsyobiSnEdC_heM_O8FuZ8DBu1Q2dBDmeJ6D_LvO6x37-OfAXV3dGm-obvg==" target="_blank">BlackRock, who apparently said these things when interviewed by the Wall Street Journal. I commented on the article as follows:

Three comments: (1) anyone who predicts anything beyond a month or four in the current macro-economic environment is, in my view, not being realistic - so to suggest what might happen to the U.S. in an economic sense 20 years hence for me isn't relevant, (2) over 2/3rd of the U.S. GDP has been accounted for until lately by consumer spending, so to suggest based on that variable that the U.S. hasn't gone backward in comparison with the rest of the world makes no sense to me; and (3) for anyone to rely on American innovation as a panacea in going forward from here in my opinion is 'U.S. Centric' with more than a touch of arrogance thrown in for good measure. In my view American's need to realize (preferably far sooner than later) that for every smart and entrepreneurial American there are a lot of smart and entrepreneurial people in the world who are not American - and that not all of those people have a vested interest in America's long-term economic success.

To be positive is good. To stand up and wave the American flag and sing 'God Bless America' supporting and encouraging U.S. patriotism is good. I applaud Mr. Doll (and Mr. Perry, the article's author) for doing that. However, substance needs to follow from form, and it needs to do it quickly in Washington and elsewhere in America for the economic tide to turn in America's favour - or as a Canadian with a vested interest in a positive American turnaround, that is what I currently think.


To date only one person has commented on my comment, an (I assume) American who in a not unkind way says he disagrees with everything I said. You might consider reading the article, which includes a historic comparative country GDP graph, and reach your own conclusion.
U.S. State & Municipal Job Cuts
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A recent article titled 'reading time 2 minutes - addresses what it says is likely to be a "record-breaking lay-off binge' of up to 110,000 employees by U.S. State and Local Governments during the first quarter of their new fiscal year that begins July 1. The article says that this employment sector has lost 510,000 jobs from August 2008 to date. It also reports that States (I think a generalization) face multi-billion dollar budget gaps that up to the end of this month have subsidized by U.S. Federal Government stimulus. Apparently States are planning to reduce education, social service and local government funds, as well as downsize their own payrolls further in the next twelve months.

The article reports that (I assume broadly speaking) Local Governments are in worse fiscal shape than are State Governments. While the article doesn't comment on specific types of job cut-backs, to the extent Local Governments are responsible for funding Fire Departments, Local Infrastructure, Police Departments, Waste Management Services, Water Treatment Plants, etc. reducing employment at what are fundamental and essential services that work to maintain social order can't be a good thing.

On this same topic, the possible reality of the foregoing finds support in a second article published this morning titled '
Jefferson County, Alabama has "commenced plans to put nearly 1,000 employees on administrative leave to avoid municipal bankruptcy".

I wonder what Meredith Whitney is saying now. If you missed what I think is the very important CBS 60 Minutes Segment late last year when Ms. Whitney proclaimed that there would be major State and Municipal Defaults in 2011
Royal Canadian Mounted Police who 'always get their man' have been forced to cut spending on such things as (1) organized crime investigation, (2) drug enforcement, and (3) money laundering, and currently is faced with further cutting spending on specified national police services including fingerprint identification, the sex offender registry, Canadian Police College and the DNA data bank. You can read about that in an article titled '

You can read about that in an article titled '
' -clk here.. reading time 4 minutes.



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