For those interested the youtube video is quite interesting found in the article of my last message. Some big names starting with Sprott and Morgan.

Not much point having a round table where everyone's on the same side of the debate, is there? Where's the dissenting voice? Couldn't they find one? A market with no bears, eh? Where's the wall of worry? Hell, even I'm bullish on silver - I just don't like crowds is all. Everyone on the same side of the boat makes me nervous.

I'm strictly "old school" when it come to trading. I use price, volume, and trend. The method is more reliable with commodities than stocks, so I feel fairly safe using it with silver which I regard as a commodity (at least it trades like one).

So, using SLV as a proxy, what do I see? A well established, gently sloping uptrend from the Nov 2008 low that turns sharply north around Aug. 2010. That secondary, sharper uptrend is now decisively broken. The milder, tertiary trend from Aug. that crosses minor support at 34 is now also broken. Also note, the heavy volume on down days, and shrinking volume on up days post that break.

What does it mean? Well, to me the odds are lower prices ahead. How low? Well, if we returned to the original 2008 trend today, we'd have a price of around 21. I don't see that happening though. It take time for markets to work off their excess, and the long term trend is well established, so the next thing is to project it, and see where it intersects the current price. That gives you an estimated time by which price starts to recover. I put that somewhere out around 2014. Of course we could back-fill between now and then and return to trend sooner, which implies a low of around 25 somewhere between then and now.

Of course the chance is always there for a sharper, long-term uptrend to establish itself, but how likely is that after a parabolic move? As I mentioned before, silver is now top heavy with trapped longs. It's going to be a while before those guys are out of the way. As a true trader (that is to say, not emotionally attached to any particular commodity but only interested in price, volume and trend) I'd be looking around for a new play. I don't know what that would be, but this one's just about toast I'd say.

ebear