First, this isn't an Islamic revolution, so comparisons to Iran in 1979 are misplaced. There's certainly a religious aspect to it, but what I see is more aptly compared to Latin America in the 80's and 90's than Iran in 79.

Second, it's not a food fight, although food prices definitely play a role, as do lack of employment, education and social mobility. Some of these issues can be resolved by simply removing the thieves in charge, but the larger issue is undoubtably political freedom. The right to fair representation through the ballot - just as it was in Latin America.

Also, notice the people involved in these uprisings. They're almost all young, which reflects the fact that these populations have grown tremendously in the last decades. This is cited as a problem where food is concerned, and that may be true down the road, but for the moment consider the effect that exposure to western media and lifestyles has had on this demographic. This fight is as much about personal freedom and economic opportunity as it is about replacing dictators. In that regard, pay special attention to the role of women in these uprisings, especially in Egypt. Any government brought to power by these events better also pay attention, because this part of the world is ripe for a women's revolt, and the door just swung open on that possibility.

Higher oil prices? Too bad for us, but good news for a nascent revolution that's going to need money to spend on social improvements, education and so forth. Oil poor nations like Egypt can expect help from Libya, as it won't escape notice that they owe a huge debt to the people of Tunisia and Egypt who started the ball rolling.

What this all implies for the gulf states is anyone's guess. Right now there are two approaches being taken: buy them off (Bahrain & Saudi) or the big stick (Iran). Neither of these will work in the long run for the same reasons as above. It may not happen tomorrow or the next day, but it's coming, so we need to start thinking about what it all means.

I'm actually encouraged by the way this is turning out. No doubt many challenges lie ahead, but if these nations can achieve the same results as in Latin America, the world will definitely be better off, and right now we all need something hopeful to focus on.

ebear