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Message: ebear buys Primero (P.TO)

Initial position 1200 @ 3.96/7 Not a big buy, but I like to ease into these things. I don't see any big rush here, but I like that too. Gives me time to accumulate. If there's one thing I hate, it's chasing a stock.

FWIW, there are various one year targets in the $8 range, plus a $14 target that may or may not be overstated. Hell, I'll take a double in a year - I'm not greedy;-)

What I see is a guy who's already built one company, and is about to do it again. He's assembled a good team with a proven record, a decent property in a safe jurisdiction with room for expansion into a mid-tier producer, which is the stated goal.

One thing to note about Mexico is that the government subsidizes fuel prices, so any jump in world oil prices shouldn't affect Mexican operators to the same degree as elsewhere.

If you're happiest chasing exploration plays with big pops, this is probably not for you. This is a company that's taken on debt to finance expansion of a currently producing mine with good exploration potential. I'll take cheap debt financed out of cash flow over dilution any day of the week. Speaking of dilution, they are well cashed, so any future issues should be a ways down the road. Some of that debt is convertible BTW - $60M for 1 year @ $6 share. Also note the 2015 warrants with an $8 strike. I haven't looked into these yet, but I may add a few for extra octane.

As always, DD applies.

ebear

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