Here we GO out on the Limb.. and Where is my hard Hat when I need it?
posted on
Jan 04, 2011 12:56AM
We may not make much money, but we sure have a lot of fun!
Listen, regardless of what those astute and smart chaps like, Orgy or Misty, Mudlark, and others etc. on what they might predict or postulate for 2011, and although we highly respect their opinion and that they are astute and likeable contacts, we think from our perspective, that unfortunately .. further nastiness looks real down-the road for our investments and that it will be seen, to merit we take the safety steps in shaping up our investments in 2011, both 'interesting' and, from the point of view for equity investors and traders 'the promise that we will have even more gyrations that will hit US in a needed "think for yourself” mentality to profit in this era of necessity and ROCK & ROLL.
Some forecasters in the Newspapers are 'for sure' getting things wrong in this regard.
So here are some of the things (largely consistent with what many of the Retired Bird Brains in Ontario Smart Experts have been saying in e-mails over the past many months) that we think are either likely to occur, or may occur, in 2011 on the economic front:
·Harrumph, see, We see China taking steps to meaningfully alter its currency exchange rate unless that is clearly in China's best economic interest - and we don't see how it can be until the Chinese economy becomes more self-sufficient;
·We see China to continue (in 2011 and beyond) with its strategic acquisition program - particularly in the resources area (Oil & Gas, Base Metals, and Agricultural related commodities in particular);
·We don't see the U.S. unemployment situation improving in 2011 in a meaningful way;
·We don't expect to see U.S. housing prices or Canadian markets improve in meaningful way in 2011, and unless there are further U.S. Federal subsidies thrown at this sector - which doubt will happen given the recent new Republican strength in Washington. If such subsidies were legislated, we cringe and see that as a 'sign of desperation';
·We see the potential of increased 'residential housing foreclosure' problems to continue in 2011;
·Following from all the recent media coverage on U.S. State and Municipal debt problems ( like where you live), we can't help but think that 'where there is smoke there is fire', and that while this might not prove in calendar 2011 to be as great a problem as forecast by Meredith Whitney. However, though, we can't help but think it may prove to be a problem of some significance. For some time most folks have been saying in e-mails to us that the Municipal and State income and sales tax bases have been eroding after 2007, and that has led to or will lead to obvious financial problems;
·In 2011 we see the U.S. and ours ... and yours ... Local Municipal Governments etc. to continue to run substantial monthly net trade deficits, a large budget deficit, and suffer a substantially increased cumulative National Debt - while Washington and Provincial Politics suffer from partisan gridlock. In particular, with the Republicans and our Liberals having a greater say in these things , we are not expecting to see further Quantitative Easing measures - which we don't see as having been particularly effective in any event;
·We expect to see an ever increasing gap between the wealthy in North America and North America regular 'Main Streeters'. We don't see that as a good thing. Look at what your Municipality is spending without merit in Employee clothing. Council and City fathers should Read and understand... “The Law of Deminishing Rewards.”
·We expect to see a continuation of what we see as U.S. economic weakening as measured against the economies of China in particular, and perhaps when measured against resource rich and 'stable' political Australia and our Canada;
·We expect to see further, and perhaps more exacerbated 'Sovereign Debt' issues rear their heads in the Euro zone in 2011;
·Hey, it will not surprise us if we see an increasing number of social unrest 'hotspots' as 2011 progresses, as people in the developed economies in particular come to an increasing realization that the standard of living they enjoyed (at whatever level that was) is eroding, and likely will continue to erode, for a great number of them - and as youth unemployment becomes a greater and greater problem in some of those 'developed economy' countries;
·Although most of us don't want to go there, whether it happens in 2011 or beyond, we see an ever increasing change of meaningful 'terrorism incidents' in the developed countries - particularly in the U.S. - and, heaven forbid, we also see what we see to be an increasing possibility of country confrontation as the world population continues to increase, and as economic power shifts increasing to the emerging market countries.
. God help those that voted to approve Tax Increases.
·With respect to the equity markets, we have for some months seen them as over-reacting on the high side. So far those some of us have been proven to be wrong in this regard. We continue to think the equity markets are not factoring in all of the economic issues we see out there, and expect those markets to reflect those things in 2011 in a way they haven't in 2010. Having said that, we are highly aware that this is one area that some ( your Council members) and us have 'failed to get right' so far. Our biggest concern as an equity investor in the resource sectors is, as we have said and posted many times in e-mails, 'a rising tide raises all boats, and a falling tide lowers all boats'. Not a day goes by that we don't reflect on this adage in the context of our own resource investments, and we suggest you do likewise; and…
·In the uncertain economic environment we all live in, many of us expect to see the price of physical gold to continue to trend upward in 2001 - but as we have said in many recent e-mails (1) we don't believe anyone is smart enough to forecast a target price for physical gold in a meaningful way, and (2) right or wrong, we see physical gold as a 'save haven' protector of 'purchasing power'. As a result we suspect we have less interest than most its price, other than for the fact the price of physical gold is highly relevant to equity prices in the gold exploration and gold production sectors, which honestly we do care about.
Caveat with respect to all the foregoing 'predictions': But then again Casey Stengel (New York Yankee baseball team manager circa 1950's), known for his bizarre statements, famously said "Never make predictions, especially about the future", and Yogi Berra (New York Yankee catcher same circa) famously said:
"It ain't over 'till it's over". Like us, neither Casey nor Yogi were economists. All that said, we the hopeful sincerely hope our prognostications largely prove to be wrong.
Keep the wind at your back in 2011.