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Message: NOT GOOD BEING AT THE BOTTOM OF BARREL!
December 21, 2010

Asia are now the producers of the world. The West, largely, are the consumers. The proof is in the numbers.

Consuming more than you produce is bad, by the way, despite what American politicians say. If you plan to improve your life in the future it is always better to produce more and consume less. That's about as basic as it gets. But with leaders like George W. Bush intoning Americans to "Get out there and shop!" after the 9/11 attacks this logic obviously goes over his head!

Take a look at the current account balance (effectively exports minus imports of goods & services) leaders taken from the 2008 World Economic Outlook database. Here are the top 25 producing nation states:

Rank Country Current Account Balance (Billions USD)
1 China 296.2
2 Japan 131.2
3 Germany 109.7
4 Saudia Arabia 95.762
5 Russia 76.163
6 Iran 70.797
7 Norway 59.983
8 Netherlands 52.522
9 Kuwait 48.039
10 Singapore 39.157
11 United Arab Emirates 39.113
12 Sweden 38.797
13 Taiwan 32.979
14 Algeria 30.600
15 Malaysia 29.181
16 Switzerland 28.776
17 Hong Kong 28.038
18 Libya 23.786
19 Qatar 21.374
20 Venezuela 20.001
21 Thailand 15.765
22 Canada 12.726
23 Austria 12.012
24 Finland 11.268
25 Indonesia 11.010

A quick glance through that list will show that many of the top producers in the world are oil-producing countries. There's nothing wrong with that but unless you are looking for a future wherein you are employed or are active in the petroleum industry (which is not a bad idea at all) then you wouldn't have much interest in those countries.

Let's take out the countries in which the great majority of their exports come from oil from that list and highlight the Asian countries:

Rank Country Current Account Balance (Billions USD)
1 China 296.2
2 Japan 131.2
3 Germany 109.7
4 Russia 76.163
5 Netherlands 52.522
6 Singapore 39.157
7 Sweden 38.797
8 Taiwan 32.979
9 Malaysia 29.181
10 Switzerland 28.776
11 Hong Kong 28.038
12 Thailand 15.765
13 Canada 12.726
14 Austria 12.012
15 Finland 11.268
16 Indonesia 11.010

No countries from Africa. No countries from Latin America.

Wondering what are some of the places to avoid? Here are the bottom 10 nation states in the world in terms of Current Account Balance:

Rank Country Current Account Balance (Billions USD)
172 South Africa -20.557
173 Portugal -21.987
174 Romania -23.234
175 United Kingdom -32.37
176 Australia -33.31
177 Greece -34.43
178 France -43.67
179 Italy -55.44
180 Spain -69.46
181 United States -380.1

That is a pretty motley crew! You couldn't pick a better list of places that are in crisis... Portugal, the UK, Greece, France, Italy, Spain. Here are some recent snapshots from on the ground in those countries:

It's pretty obvious at which end of that list you want to be.

The scary part is that the U.S current account deficit is more than 4 times larger than the next biggest loser, Spain.

It makes one wonder what the photos coming out of the US will look like in the coming months.

The Dollar Vigilante


Regards,


Jeff Berwick
Chief Editor
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