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(Kitco News) - With gold making new highs, investors are looking for forecasts for gold prices following actions of gold miners, central bankers or chartists. None of them have been right in the past 40 years, said Citigroup Global Markets. “When gold miners had to buy back massive hedges, they proved we should not look to them for gold-price forecasting. The same applies to central banks, which sold right at the bottom.
Bankers don’t get it right, either. Many famous forecasters (high-profile academics and high-profile chartists), after gold had fallen from a high of $875/oz to $600/oz in 1981, forecast it would soon shoot above $1000. Instead, it entered a 20-year slumber party,” the bank wrote. “We now have popular forecasters (popular because they called sub-prime right) forecasting that gold is on its way to $4000/oz. It may well be.
The history of unsuccessful forecasting shows it also may be on its way to $800/oz. And yet these high forecasts are no less popular than they were in 1981. As the famous saying goes, ‘Its deja vu all over again’.”
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