ebear - i understand and endorse your skepticism about the call ...there will not be a real turn however (perhaps some head fakes) ... the problem about contrarian indicators is you must be careful not to distrust yourself and the circle of people you read if they are in the minority of thinkers ... yes that minority may be unanimous but the majority either have no idea or believe all is well ... you know better and I know better ... further simply identifying that you hear too many calls of reality setting in, does not in itself defy the logic you think or read.

I agree, and I would never take anything as a pure contrary indicator (except a bear on the cover of Newsweek...lol) without some underlying trend or condition also being present to support the view. Frankly, you can make a pretty good case that Contrarianism itself is dead, based on the simple fact that it has so many followers.

All that said, and taking what I admit is a purely personal view, I think the EU is a good idea, and a common currency is a net benefit, despite the obvious drawbacks.

As a citizen of both Canada and the UK, allow me to make a comparison. To work (or even live) in the USA, I have to jump through multiple hoops which gets harder the lower my skill levels. Residency in retirement is an issue on health insurance grounds, as is my tax status.

None of this applies in the EU. I can live and work where I please, the only barrier being language. Most Europeans under 40 speak at least 2 languages. Personally, I speak three and can manage in a couple of others.

In the bigger picture, trade barriers are largely non-existent within the union, as is currency speculation. Membership means you can't print your way out of a hole a la USA, at least not to the same degree before some kind of austerity is forced on you by the other members. Not a perfect situation, but better than the fast track to zero currently being pursued in the USA.

Looking ten years down the road, I ask myself, where would be the better place to live, work and raise a family and the answer come back, the EU. More cultural exposure to me is a good thing. My kids learning several languages starting in kindergarten is a good thing. Higher standards of education? No argument there. Sure, there are issues, but pick a place outside of Canada where the above applies, and you'll be looking a long time. The USA? Hardly. They're on the slippery slope to third world status in my view - a small group of wealthy elite surrounded by scores of increasingly desperate people with ready access to guns in a culture which extolls their virtue. Not much of a choice really.

ebear