Lets hope
posted on
Dec 17, 2009 03:20PM
We may not make much money, but we sure have a lot of fun!
Part of an article in Reuters. LONDON (Reuters) - Investors in major gold producers may enjoy some long-overdue gains next year as companies hope to cash in on the precious metal's ability to sustain historically high price levels. Gold's pullback from record highs above $1,225 an ounce this month is seen by some analysts as a key stage in its longer-term uptrend. Sustained price gains are likely to be supportive for miners in a way occasional forays to record highs have not been. "Once prices stabilize, whether it's at $1,000 or $1,100, you will find significant buying coming back to the gold equity market," said RBC Capital Markets analyst Leon Esterhuizen. "I would expect people to buy the equities up to the gold price level at that time, because then you are basically gearing up for the next run." General pricing levels for gold equities were at least $200-300 behind spot prices when the metal was trading around $1,200 an ounce in anticipation of a pullback, Esterhuizen said. Gold has fallen more than 9 percent after surging last month on the back of central bank buying and dollar weakness, fuelling hopes the metal may be building a base at higher levels. Most major gold miners have underperformed 2009's 27 percent rise in bullion prices. Strong local currencies have raised costs for many, outweighing the impact of higher metal prices. South Africa's Harmony Gold, the fifth-largest gold miner, is the biggest underperformer of the world's top 10 gold producers. Its shares have dropped 19 percent this year, mainly due to the strong rand. FORECASTING WOES "Gold companies have been bad at forecasting production and costs," said Theresa Gusman, global head of commodities at DB Advisors, the asset management subsidiary of Deutsche Bank. "As production has fallen short of expectations and costs have continued to increase, it has been very good for the gold price - but for stock prices it has been bad." For graphic showing the relative performance of selected gold miners and bullion, click on: Russia's biggest gold miner Polyus Gold was the only top 10 producer to outperform bullion. Its shares more than doubled helped by rouble depreciation, resolution of a shareholder conflict and good growth prospects.