Old Interview I was going to delete BUT.. Still information of value so sharing
posted on
Nov 09, 2009 12:37AM
We may not make much money, but we sure have a lot of fun!
Note his content on ARU!!!
Esp. his text on DMM as the "canary in the coal mine”!!!!!! Robert Cohen for your reading pleasure - not proofread! May contain errors
Amanda: Today on market call, Robert Cohen from dynamics funds has precious metals fund has outperformed his peers' and the precious metals index. We're taking your calls on precious metals index. Hello and welcome to the Friday edition of "market call", I’m Kim parlee sitting in for Michael hainsworth, a reminder if you'd like to reach us with your questions, you can call us toll free. >> Kim: Today's guest as mentioned, Robert Cohen who is with dynamic funds, where he's a portfolio manager. We're taking questions on gold and precious metals and we'll be taking your questions in a moment.
First, nice to see you and nice to have you back. Let's start off with gold prices, we saw them slipping below $800 recently. As much as yesterday. And some interesting comments from a barrick C.E.O., Talking about its going to be harder for this supply of gold to get to market, costing more to get gold out of the ground and those types of things. Of course, you'd expect someone to be talking it up, it would help push up gold prices. How true is what he's saying? >>
Guest: It's true, you have a lot of input prices such as labour, fuel prices that take, for your give you your cost per ton of getting the ore out of the ground. So basically you know, you got to look at in terms of profit margins’. You have oil prices going up and gold prices going up in tandem, you can almost have a situation where you have pretty consistent profit margins. So really what you want to see is gold going up faster than the input prices. But we also got to be concerned here in Canada about the Canadian dollar, as well. So as a matter of fact, people are saying, gold's gone down. But in fact, not doing the exact math here in my head here, but when gold was $820, about a week ago, the dollar was $1.10. And now we're at, say $789 and the dollar is closer to $1.02, $1.03. So it's gone up in Canadian dollar terms. So not necessarily what it appears it's doing on the headline numbers, you have to think about what's going on with the Canadian dollar and its impact on profit margins of the companies. >> Kim: I would expect a lot of the large, barrick company; large companies have investments outside of Canada, too. >> Guest: When you're looking at costs, typically labour is 20, 30% of your costs. So if you are inside of Canada, then, sure, your costs might move up. If the dollar moves up 10%, your costs are moving up 2%. I think the bigger impact is with the commodity price itself; more so than are we in Canada, are we outside of Canada, as far as where our operations are located. >>
Kim: Are you expecting a flurry of acquisition activity? Barrick saying its going to cost more to get things out, one could extrapolate, perhaps correctly, perhaps not so, that it's going to take some acquisitions to build things up. >> Guest: The more developed gold companies do trade at premiums to their net asset. I could get into option pricing and all kinds of fun things, now when a large company has the ability to look at a smaller company that's in the development phase, typically, they can typically buy those development companies for a lot cheaper than what their own paper is trading for. So it's usually an accretive acquisition, it's usually accretive to the shareholders. I'm not necessarily as big a fan of slapping companies together for the sake of slapping them together. I have more admiration for big production companies, looking further down the food chain and looking for deeper value. And acquiring development companies, which are relatively undervalued. Compared to wrr they are. And let the big producer turn it into a producer minor asset for that matter. And then, they will get an uplift of valuation. >>
Kim: That's some thoughts on acquisitions, what's happening in the gold sector. When we come back you'll get a chance to ask Robert Cohen your questions. >> Kim: Welcome back to "market call", I'm Kim parlee, here with Robert Cohen, a portfolio manager with dynamic funds. He's here to take your questions, let's start with Tim calling from Vancouver.
Go ahead. >> Caller: My question is on El Dorado gold. I noted they're hopefully just going to have a positive announcement in turkey. And expect to get your outlook on the company. >> Kim: Thanks, Tim. >>
Guest: A lot of the price performance will be dependent on the outcome of what's going on in turkey. Now from our perspective, it looks to be like a frivolous lawsuit, from an N.G.O. Group. Unfortunately, the way the legal and judicial system works there, is that they were forced to suspend the operations while the judge was reviewing the validity of the case. Now that's supposed to be -- >>
Kim: Is this something unique to turkey? >> Guest: That's unique to turkey. It's a company that's appropriately named. >> Kim: All right. Keep 0ing going? >> Guest: Anyway, we'll see how it works out. I think that El Dorado will be OK. They also have a backup of their other operations in northwestern china. So there's some good value there. And I think that we, assuming that you feel that the situation in turkey will resolve itself and we feel that that's a matter of weeks, but you can never predict these things. The stock should reap on that news very nicely. >>
Kim: Do you guys own El Dorado? >> Guest: Yes, it's one of the key components of our fund. >> Kim: And at what levels, attractive at this level? >> Guest: It is, it’s very attractive at this level. You can see from the chart there, the old highs that we would retest those if the situation is resolved. As a matter of fact, the company is very well-prepared. The lawsuit is about some perceived flaws in their environmental impact assessment statement that was used to approve the project. The project has been in production for about a year. They had to suspend operations. Now what they've done is they have cited issues with the closure plant. S the ironic thing, they were forced to close because the so-called environmental group did the not like the closure plan. But nonetheless, the company r company has revised its environmental impact statement and closure plan. So that if the judge does ask for new documents to be resubmitted, they can say, here you go. >> Kim: OK. Thanks very much for the question, Tim. Let's go to an email, from jack. >>
Kim: It's a company that you like. We'll get into detail later on. But before we tell people why you like it specifically, in terms of where it ranks in your picks, what's the fundamental outlook for this company? >> Guest: Well this is one of the best exploration discoveries of this cycle. This is in southwestern Ecuador. And they've just put out a resource in September of 13.7 million ounces at an average grade of 7.1 grams per ton. So for an underground operation and given the widths we'll be mining, this is going to be a very low-cost operation. And this is extremely high-grade. This is a fabulous, fabulous ore body. The stock price has been beaten up still, because of perceived political risks. >>
Kim: Is it perceived political risks? Or do you think there are more political risks there than -- >> Guest: I think you'll see Ecuador being more progressive along the lines of countries like Chile. They will likely put in a royalty on terms, in terms of their mining news. There's really no sophisticated mining going on in Ecuador per se right now. Although, there is a dirth of companies that are developing projects. Think the one canary in a coalmine, so to speak, is a company called dynasty metals and minerals, which we also own. They actually have their, all of their permits in place and they're in constructing a smaller operation, 100,000-ounce per year operation and they'll be in production in March of 2008. So that's an example of a company that's been able to successfully permit, construct and go through that. So that a lot of people are unaware of some of the good things that have been going on. As well, there have been some positive statements issued by the Ecuadorian government in the last couple of days. >>
Kim: MR. Morales. >> Guest: No, that's Bolivia. >> Kim: Ok. >> Guest: The Ecuadorian president is Rafael correia. He's university of Illinois-educated, he's very progressive-thinking. He's the media have grouped him in with some of the other bad boys out there in the world. But I don't think it's as bad as perceived. You know, you might likely see something like a 5%, 3% to 5% royalty in place similar to Peru, for example. And these are countries that welcome foreign investment. >>
Kim: But you're not worried about nationalization? >> Guest: Nothing like that. As a matter of fact, iamgold and Corey intake have stated in the last 72 hours, positive statements by the Ecuadorian government. There was a statement yesterday by iamgold by the project and the government's full support for that project. So I think it's still a good place to invest. Personally, I love investing in Canada. If I go away from Canada, it will be either for something very good, wit I'm willing to accept any of these sorts of risks. And I wouldn't have really one of my top holdings, if I was not uncomfortable with it. >>
Kim: He gave it away. He's telling you it's one of his top holdings. I kid, but we'll get into more detail on ranking the stock holdings, later in the show. Let's go to Ed, calling from Vancouver. >> Caller: Robert, you're one of my favorite analysts. I would like to ask you about a stock you recommended in the past that I'm a shareholder 6, and that's palmarencO. I would like to know what you think of their main projects and their exploration properties and what do you think of the deal by core, core da lane it take over some of the properties? >> Well you are tendering your shares to core da lane, I don't think, I don't think there's any purpose in trying to fight it on your own. I think most of the key shareholders are intent to tender. So really, the project itself, the palmarejo gold projects, we have it in our fund, because we liked this project. As far as Coeur d’Alene, I have to do a bit more on valuation. It's one of the bigger U.S. Silver companies. >> Kim: Are they tendering stock for this? Are they paying cash? >> Guest: its cash and stock, I believe. >>
Kim: This person right now is probably going to get some stock from Coeur d’Alene. Do you hang or sell? >> Guest: I'll leave it up to the caller. I've got to do a bit more homework. But it is a bigger company. In my fund, I like to have more things in the development mode, where I have a lot of deeper value than things in production mode. But I will look at Coeur d’Alene, when it comes closer to the time of what I'm going to do with my Coeur d’Alene shares. >> Kim: When we come back we've got Robert Cohen back with more calls for you, taking calls on gold and precious metals. We'll be right back. # M trim ark invests your money here? >> Closed captioning of this programme is brought to you in part by the all-new 2008 Cadillac cts. Be an original. >>
Kim: Welcome back to "market call", I'm Kim parlee, sitting in for Michael hainsworth and joined by Robert Cohen, portfolio manager for dynamic precious funds, les go to Jim calling in from salmon arm, British Columbia. >> Caller: How you doing, Linda? I would like your comments on western gold fields. >> Robert Cohen: That's the old mesquite mine in California, which Randall Alfons is leading the charge to put it back into production, I think their construction is 80% or 90% complete now. You know, it would be a good-quality levered name to the gold price. On the positive side. So I do find on I, when I crunch the numbers, yes, it is indeed undervalued. I think you can come up with somewhere around $5 a share valuation. The only other problem is, is that it is fairly low-grade. And that works both ways. So when you have your profit margins opening up, stock will do very well. But if you have periods where either oil prices are going up or gold's pulling back or -- >>
Kim: This is what’s happening right now. >> Robert Cohen: Or gold going up or whatever, you're going to bounce around quite a bit with this stock. So it's done quite well, so far. But you know, when you're in the cusp of going into production, there is probably some still, some more value to be extracted. But on the other hand, I caution, it is pretty low-grade. And normally personally, I like to be in something of higher grade. And have a bit more of profit margins cushion. >>
Kim: It sounds like you don't own this one. >> Robert Cohen: Right. >> Kim: Let's go to an email. >> Robert Cohen: Hmm, northern dynasty, that's an interesting company. But I am not a fan of it. >> Kim: Why? >> Robert Cohen: Why? This is a massive, massive project up in Alaska. Copper, basically it's a copper project. It's just sits outside of the lake Clark national preserve, which is an extension of the lake Clark national park. It's a combination of an open pit and underground mine. And at $1.50 copper, I do find that this company -- this project, the open pit portion of the project, I find it would just be trading dollars. So you need copper prices higher than $1.50 a pound long-term that is. The underground portion of is a lot morrow butt. But here you have something that's a massive project -- morrow bust. It's going it take years and years before it goes into production. Assuming you get all your permits. This is Alaska; there is a vocal group out there that opposes the project. So -- where that all lands, is yet to be seen. It's a long way down the road. So the earliest start-up that I can envisage with this project is something like the year 2012. And it would likely be delayed. So let's say realistically, 2013, 2014. Right now, it's 2007. That's a long way away. >>
Kim: Too much risk, too many things can happen between now and then. >> Robert Cohen: So actually I'm a little built more conservative. My target on the stock is around 8.25. 'S trading about 25% above that but then again, my target, I have it purposely conservative for those reasons. >> Kim: OK. Thanks so much for the call, Robert. I do believe we have a call coming in, believe it or not, from Bangkok, Thailand. I think we have mike on the line. Mike, is that where you are? >> Caller: Yes, that's where I am, that's correct. >>
Kim: Thanks for the call and go in with your question, please. >> Caller: Hi, Robert. Your comments on sananton resource corp. Regarding the grade and economics, please? >> Robert Cohen: Sure I've looked at the serro degiello property, so I've made some notes on it. Here we are. My i think the resource they had at the time, may have been upgraded, so since I last updated my notes, is about 165 million tonnes at half a gram per ton. Gold, 16 grams per ton. Silver, .13% copper. So you're dealing again similar to the western gold field situation, with something that's very low-grade. But then you get the leverage to commodity prices. So when you crunch the numbers, once again, its very similar answer to the last one. Yeah, it does appear undervalued. It's probably worth you know, technically, maybe around $2 a share. But again i don't necessarily like to chase things that are such low-grade projects. There's so many other opportunities out there for me and my fund. You know, my fund is like, it's like the TV show, "survivor." I'm voting people off the island constantly, not trying to get people on the island. So I'm very fussy about what i invest in. But again, there is some value here. However, it doesn't meet my criteria for things that I like. >>
Kim: OK. We're going to leave that one there. Mike thank you so much for your call, from bangkok, Thailand. When we come back, we'll get Robert's past picks. And in 30 minutes' time we'll get his top picks. Stay with "market call", we'll be right back. >>
Kim: Welcome back to "market call", I'm here with Robert Cohen. Portfolio manager with die nalic funds, time for his past picks. In about 30 minutes' time we'll get his top picks. Let's talk about these, these are from February 12th, 2007.
Your first one is alexco resources, then $6.20. Today we're trading around $5.50 as we can see. It is down about 10%. Do you still hold this one? >> Robert Cohen: Yeah, i do. 10% in our universe, 10% fluctuation is not a big fluctuation, especially with the markets, how they whipsaw around. This is one of the highest-grade silver camps in the world. It's the old united keno hill mines up in the Yukon. They are working hard at on one area called the bell-keno, which will be the first part of the mine they can bring back into production, probably within a year, year and a half. And again, you know, you're going to see some very good robust silver grades here. >>
Kim: OK. Well that's AL ex co. This is Christopher James gold. C.J.G., A venture exchange stock. Then it was $71 cents, now 19 cents. Down about 73%, do you still hold this one? >> Robert Cohen: No, we don't. This is one that did not work out. This was the ranch project up in B.C. They actually have a couple others, so you could still drill. So, but based on the drilling on the main bonanza zone, the subsequent drilling, really showed that the ore body had pinched out there. There's a couple other areas called thesis ii, thesis iii zones that can still be drilled. So there's still a chance for maybe potentially recovery there. But based on the first drilling, out or the subsequent drilling, on the bonanza zone, i decided to exit the stock. So it's no longer a name with us. It's like the old song, two out of three ain't bad this was the one out of three that was bad. >>
Kim: You have the stars that make the portfolio and some that don't make it. With the situation like that, with the venture stock, I mean you obviously wait for the drilling results to see if they can follow through what they've been talking about. Is that the decision point? Is that when you usually make the decision? >> Robert Cohen: In that case, it was a junior exploration company. I decided to throw it in the mix back on a previous show because -- rather than be boring and just talk about big, well-known production companies, I looked at some of the higher-risk exploration companies. And this was one that did show a lot of promise on the early drilling. However, it's one that didn't pan out. >> Kim: I guess I'm trying to understand for people trying to understand when to enter, when to exit. >> Robert Cohen: It's really a judgment call, especially on exploration stocks. >>
Kim: Let's talk about Aurelian resources. Then it was $6.25. Now we're trading in north of $8, $8.41. So it's up about 32% and change. And again we're going to be talking about your top picks as well. You still do own the stock? >>
Robert Cohen: Still own it, one of the top two holdings. I can't remember, two that are basically tied as my top holdings. And aurelian is one of them. >>
Kim: Those are the past picks. Speaking to Robert Cohen, portfolio manager with dynamic funds, we'll be back after this very short break. Our number, if you want to get in touch with us -- >> Kim: Welcome back to the Friday edition of "market call", I'm Kim parlee, sitting for Michael hainsworth. To reach us, call toll free to the numbers on the screen. The number is good across the country, and apparently from bangkok, Thailand, which is where we just got a call a few moments ago. Or email us at marketcall@bnn.Ca.
We're talking with Robert Cohen, portfolio manager at dynamic funds, so without delay, let's start out with Howard calling in from Toronto. >> Caller: I have quite a large position in sangold, S.G.R. I've held it for a couple of years, my average cost is about $1.30. It seems to go up and down. And i wonder what your opinion is it going forward and the running of the company, if that's relevant. Thank you. >> Robert Cohen: I own a lot of San gold, we own close to just in the precious dynamic precious metals fund, we own close to 10% of the company, which is basically at our legal limit of how much of a company we can own. >>
Kim: That's an endorsement. >> Robert Cohen: That's a good endorsement right there. It's a great opportunity. It's, in Canada first of all, so i like stuff that's at home. It's in Manitoba. Which has been rated by the Fraser institute as the best mining jurisdiction in the world. It's a goldmine, it's back into production. They are ramping up slowly. So they're probably annualized somewhere around 50,000 ounce as year. Over the next year they'll be ramping up to 100,000 ounce as year. This is high grade. So this is another thing I do like. So we are dealing with ore that actually, you know, has an average grade, i think officially on the resource statement, it's about eight grams per ton. But we're dealing with something that will likely bias its way up higher as they continue with their exploration. And i think the exploration is still relatively untapped. One thing that is hindering it a little bit is labour availability. Skilled labour. It's really a factor across the board in the mining industry. To find skilled miners is a bit of a challenge. But we are going to be you know, i think they have a good opportunity. To attract skilled labour, we have a project here that's three hours outside of weg. So if you have skilled labour in, you know, some jurisdictions in the world, that's very remote, you know, this is a very attractive place to go work out of. >>
Kim: $1.38, do you have a call where you see it going? Where do you see it moving to? >> Robert Cohen: I still see it moving to over $3 a share. You know, we'll See. It will really depend on the fruits of their exploration efforts. Ty think there's a lot of potential here. This is the same geology as red lake, Ontario. So as the crow flies, you're 70 kilometers due west of red lake. It's the same geology. The same kind of rocks. And there's also a potential that they can have some of the same successes that you've had at, say, gold corp's red lake mine. There is potential in this geology to find a real treasure in there. However, you know, it's looking for that needle in a haystack. So I can't say how, when, where. >>
Kim: But just eventually where you see it going. And the fact you own so much, clear endorsement. Thanks so much for the call, let's go to William in Edmonton, Alberta. >> Caller: I would like to hear your opinion on Mindoro resources, M.I.O. I was at their offices in the Philippines last spring and they've been doing quite a bit of drilling, they're in the process of proving reserves, they seem to be getting some good results, wondered what your opinion was on them. >>
Robert Cohen: I'm sorry; this is a bnn embarrassment for me. Because i was told that the call was on mo dmfrn Doro, mondorO. One place i do avoid investing in is the Philippines, i find that the Bill jurisdiction isn't the best in the world. So that's one thing you have to consider. When you're investing in a country such as the Philippines, you're taking on that more political risk. >> Kim: William, send us an email, we'd be happy to pass on to somebody. When we come back we'll be taking more of your calls. We'll be right back with Robert Cohen after this. >>
Kim: Welcome back to "market call", I'm Kim parlee in for Michael hainsworth, Robert Cohen here to take your calls on gold and precious metals, let's go to Yellowknife, we have Wayne on the line. >> Caller: I love the show, i use the web cast a lot when i get off of work. My question is on detour gold. I'm an owner of pallanjio shares, I'm interested to see if i should purchase detour gold shares. >>
Robert Cohen: I was looking at the chart. What good-looking chart that is. We own detour gold in the fund. This is a, a large tonnage, lower-grade, but it will be an open-pitable target. They're infilling in the an area called the gap zone. The results are looking good there. And i conservatively have, i think it's a $12 target on the stock. Think that's still conservative. So I like it a Lot. And it's been one of the newer holdings in the fund. And again, it's near timmins. It's in canada. You know, Canada is one of the best political jurisdictions in the world. And you know, if you're going to keep your money at home, keep it at home. You know -- >>
Kim: What are the catalysts? It's trading at $9.90. What will get it above that? >> Robert Cohen: Right now, it's exploration, they're still expanding the size the deposit. But we're getting closer into prefeasibility. Bankable feasibility stage. Likely into production within you know, call it three years. And so that's really going to be your catalyst, to see as the deposit grows and we get closer to tighter numbers on what the final capital will be and the final engineering done on the project. But it will be a mine. >>
Kim: Thank you so much for the call, Wayne and let's go to an email from martin. The question -- do you own gold corp. And would you continue to hold and add to your position at today's price? >>
Robert Cohen: Sure. Gold Corp. Is the third largest gold company in the world. Barrick, new month and goldcorP. They took it a little hard on the chin over the glamis gold am acquisition, and one of the problems there, it's pretty much a math problem, you know you're looking at one of the main net asset value drivers of glamis was their penusquito project in Mexico. So after that, you had a lot of price-to-cash flow, price-to-earnings numbers looked fairly diluted. So that's what happened there. Think when the production starts up out of Mexico, you'll see a return to normality, of some of the typical measures used by the street. But on a net-asset value basis, i still think it looks good. And I do like the deal they just did with kinross, where they did some asset swaps and basically, control all of you know, the timmins camp and the red lake camp now. Through the old, the different pieces of, you know, not red lake camp, but they traded the Chilean laqypa camps. I was going to mention, they do control the old placer dome red lake assets with the deal they did with barrick. So it will be one of the better-quality senior companies, really where they have three to choose from. Bare iing, newmont and goldcorP. I prefer barrick to newmont and newmont over goldcorP. >>
Kim: When we come back we'll get to a whole bunch of questions, if we didn't get your calls in now, we'll be doing rapid-fire questions in a "market call" minute. >> Closed captioning of this pro gramme is brought to you in part by the all-new 2008 Cadillac cts. Be an original. >> Kim:
Welcome back to "market call", I'm Kim parlee, in for Michael hainsworth; we'll be getting to the market minute in a minute. But we'll squeeze in a few regular calls first. We've been talking about red lake. We have a call now from red lake. We've got randy on the line. >> Caller: Hi, guys, my question is regarding gold eagle minus up here in red lake. Everything seems to be progressing positively with this company. They're greatly -- directly adjacent to goldcorp's mine. They've got five drills working the site. The site is open in all directions, yet. It doesn't seem to get a whole lot of coverage. Why is that? And is it a buy at today's rates? >> Robert Cohen: I think you've basically described everything that I would have said. The company is run by Simon Lawrence and i think he's doing a very good job there. Geology, obviously as you're aware, it's a little bit more complicated there. But you do have the potential to expand the deposit. And you know, wrap some more engineering around it. Think that's probably what the market is waiting for, is to see the preliminary economics out. I think the market doesn't like to necessarily get into trying to calculate a lot of things themselves. They like things handed to them on a silver platter. And here's our cap ex, here's our operating cost. Here's when we'll be into production. When it's all clear, then people have an easier time doing an evaluation on it. That would be my guess. I think you're dealing with something that's an exploration property. And when you're in the exploration phase, the, what happens between press releases, you get a quiet period. So the stock softens up. You get good results again, the stock moves up. So i think long-term, this is a very good hold. And you're probably aware, being familiar with the living in the area. That this is a good deposit. So again, i think it would be something, i would just coin you to be patient on. >>
Kim: Randy, thank you so much for the call. Let's go to an email from Christopher in Montreal.
The question is -- may i have comments on -- OD >> Robert Cohen: When I was talking about my top holdings in the fund, i mentioned Aurelian was one and this is the other top holding in the fund. So I wouldn't be there otherwise. If, if i didn't truly believe in it. This is the Canadian arctic project, which getting bigger and bigger. Right now the current resource is about 8.4 million ounces. The average grade, is on the lower side, it's about .9 grams per ton. But this will be a very robust, bulk-mining, open-pit able target. And they have 15 drill rigs on the property right now. That's -- for those who aren't aware -- I've never heard of a company with 15 drill rigs going at the same time. So good on them. You know, really -- >>
Kim: What's the norm? To gives some context. >> Robert Cohen: It depends on the size of the deposit. But usually you hear, five, six, seven, so these guys have 15, which is mind-boggling. And Shawn rusen, who runs the company, he's done a good job. Ordering some of the lead equipment items ahead of a bankable feasibility study. Because that's another problem in the industry. I mentioned earlier, labour shortage. You also have delays of getting equipment, you know, longer and longer lead times. Because you know, we're into a morrow bust part of the cycle. >>
Kim: And everyone wants it. >> Robert Cohen: Everything wants -- everybody wants everything. So you have to get into the queue. So you have to order things ahead of time. >> Kim: Take a chance, yeah. >> Robert Cohen: This is such a large deposit. They only make semi autagenous grinding mills in 40 feet in diameter. So they've ordered already the 38-foot mills that they need. It's unlikely if you need a bigger one, you'll just order a second one kind of thing. >>
Kim: That's a look at osiskO. We'll have more on that in a few minutes. And now we'll go to Patrick from Montreal. >> Caller: Good afternoon, Kim and Robert. I'm look 0ing for a good junior gold producer to invest in and thinking iamgold, is there any political problems with this company, and is this a good entry point? >>
Kim: Thanks, Patrick. >> Robert Cohen: Interesting question, i was joking with somebody yesterday, saying they should rename the company, "imnaobium". Niobium prices have done very well. And there was still a portion of the niobium long-term contract. >>
Kim: What's it used for? >> Robert Cohen: Niobium is a metal that's used to strengthen steel. It's a similar mettle to to -- metal to molly deny up, it's controlled by the Brazilians. But we have very significant mine in Quebec. So think of the company as a bit of a mix of gold and niobium. One thing to consider, is niobium price has gone up. In the fourth quarter they'll have even better cash flow from the niobeq mine than you did in q3. So you'll have earnings surprises coming mostly from the naoibi ufrn m mines. Positive press release with their gold exploration project in Ecuador. They also have some you know, good, robust, a good, robust project in surinam. And they are having some delays with one of their other projects, called camp cayman. And the Quebec mine is a sunset mine. A few kilometers away they do have something called Westwood, that will be a mine. But there will be a gap. They'll be able to use a lot of the doyan facilities for that mine. But they'll have to build a shaft. There will be a quiet period where doyan shuts down. A couple of years will go by before they can start up westwood. So their tarquaa mine in Ghana is doing quite well. >>
Kim: Could you look at uranium prices and see them move together? If uranium is going to go up -- >> Robert Cohen: Nao bifrn ium prices are very secretive. So what we're left to do on the street is back-calculate what the price was, based on their cash flow. So for many years, i worked it out to about $14,500 a ton. And for last quarter, i had to just do a really quick and dirty, i haven't checked a lot of the -- specifics of their press release. But i just did a quick and dirty this morning as a matter of fact, just to figure out roughly what i thought the niobium price is and I it looked like roughly $37,000 a ton. It's probably somewhere in that range, anyway, 30, $40,000. >>
Kim: So it's moved up. >> Robert Cohen: More than doubled. So again, and you know, it was hard to tell. Because it's, i believe in q3 they had some of their naiobium sold under long-term contract. I understand that 4q and onward, it will be more exposed to call it a quasi-spot price, but there's no freshly quotation on that Price. >>
Kim: The bottom line for Patrick, in about 10 seconds, is it a buy? Iamgold at this level? >> Robert Cohen: I think there's some deep value there. If you're specifically chasing a gold stock, you might want to pick something elsehat has pure leverage to gold. Just, but I do like iamgold, because i think that the, there's not full recognition for the value for the naobeq mine in there, so i think there's some earnings surprises to come. >> Kim: That's it for the callS. But stay tuned, now we'll get to a bunch of calls with the "market call" minute. >>
Kim: We're back and time for a bit of rapid-fire. We've taken calls an put them together and we're going to get a very quick response on this. So this is Steve, who's calling from Manitoba. Wants to know premier gold, buy, sell or hold? >> Robert Cohen: It's a buy. Red lake, Ontario area, there's some good exploration exploration, but you know, you're dealing with something that's high-risk. >>
Kim: Corey, wants to know about aber diamond, buy, sell or hold? >> Robert Cohen: That's a buy. You you're not getting a huge amount of upside. My target is about $41 a share. I believe it's trading around 38 and change. It's one of the only invest able diamond stocks in the world stars I'm concerned. >>
Kim: Let's get Andrew in calling from Calgary. Wants to know your take owning a nicko-eagle? >> Robert Cohen: It's one of my picks, I have a $66 target on the stock they're expanding their production to $1.3 million ounces over the next three years. >>
Kim: That's today's "market call" minute. Stay with us, when we come back we'll get Robert's top picks after this short break. >> Kim: We're back with Robert Cohen, portfolio manager with dynamic funds, we have been taking your questions on gold and precious metals, and this is the part that everyone waits for. Everyone wants to know what your top picks are. We've mentioned them.
Your first top pick is Aurelian resources. A.R.U. >> Robert Cohen: 13.7 million ounces at >> Kim: The target is $8.44 is where it's trading NOW. Where do you see it moving? >> Robert Cohen: I'll give you the official, dive into my chart here. I think the stock can go -- gee, north of $10. >> Kim: OK. >> Robert Cohen: And eventually when it goes into production, it's worth you know, three times as much as where it's trading right NOW. So I think this is a great, great project. >>
Kim: So. The second one, which we have not mentioned is aurizon minus. A.R.Z. Tell us about this, why does it get to be number two of your top picks? >> Robert Cohen: Again back to my theme of staying at home in Canada. This is a really good project that's the casa breardi mine in northern Quebec, they'll be producing about 160,000 ounces a year. Very robust cash costs, I think the cash costs are around $280 an ounce if I'm not mistaken. But what i also like about it is they have, we just were talking during the break about rare earth, they have a rare earth uranium discovery. But what I also like about it is another discovery called Joanna, which is almost right next to the airport. And this is again, likely to be a very large open-pitable, bulk mining gold target. With grades even higher than osisko. I think so far they have a resource of, in all categories, just under two million ounces at around i think 1.6 grams per tone. But I think they have just committed five rigs to this property. And now, once they start to really get in there and drill it, I think it will start to open up. And it will be very interesting. So I think it's undervalued just on the casa breardi mine alone. You get everything else for free. So again, it's well-managed company. It's run by David hall and he's got a pretty sharp pencil. So I really like this stock. >>
Kim: Do you have a fair value on this? Can I ask you to dig into your chart? $3.77 is what it's trading at right now -- $3.88. >> Robert Cohen: I've got a very bullish number. It's $10 a share. I'm trying to predict what i think Joanna will become. So if I am right, that's what it's worth. >>
Kim: That's a good call. We talked about osisko. It's your third top pick. Refresh us, O.S.K. On the T.S.X., On why it gets to be number three. >>
Robert Cohen: Again, this is already an 8.4 million-ounce project. They have really uncovered this in the last, call it two years. You can see in the long-term chart, our average cost on our first block that we own was about 40 cents a share. And I think it was 40 sens or maybe it was 30 cents or so. It was a lot cheaper than what it is. I do own this personally. I should have put that on the disclosure there. So yeah, i do like it. One of my top picks. And again, i think with 15 drill rigs committed to this property it will only get bigger. >>
Kim: $6.07 is where it's trading, what's your fair value on this? >> Robert Cohen: Without taking the time to flip through the charts, i think my fair value is about $10 a share. >>
Kim: Robert, a real pleasure having you here, thank you so much. Robert Cohen portfolio manager with dynamic funds, please join us Monday on "market call", when we'll be joined by Gavin graham of the guardian group of funds, here it talk about north American large caps, you can get a head start by sending us your questions right away. #