The IMF gold sale of 403 t announced recently might have been seen as a bearish sign by some , that is untill rumor sparked that China might be interested in buying the whole lot evaluated at around $13 billion at actual price unofficialy Chinese official affirmed China would be asking to get a discount to buy the lot wich could have been interpreted as a downward pressure being applied on the price of gold .

The initial intent of the IMF was to sell the gold over a period of time in smaller amount as to avoid impacting on the price of gold going forward and in order to get the maximum amount of money for this little... treasure .

Yet the interest shown by China was followed by another rumour that Barrick Gold might be interested in participating in buying some of that gold and sure enough if it's being sold at a discount it would'nt be surprising to ear other parties state their own interest in participating to what appears to be an auction in the making .

Earlier this year China said they'd be interested to buy gold from the IMF if it were to sell part of it's 3200 t of gold reserve , so it comes as no surprise to ear them reinstating their interest at this time . It's my own opinion that this is not the last we ear about would be buyers considering the ongoing economic situation worlwide , the IMF being very sensitive to the political environment for obvious reasons it would'nt come as a surprise to ear that some other G20 members might be vocal about their interest in buying part of that gold , Germany, Russia , India and Japan to name a few could be seen as interested .

The interest shown by Barrick might also spur interest from other private parties such as private interest from the middle east , Europe or even the US .

If the sale goes at a discount ranging from 5% to 15% the $13 billion worth of gold might end up being a steal some months from now and reward the would be buyer with a few Billion dollars in quick profit considering the prospect of gold price over that time .

So until that settled we might anticipate some players to do their best in order to keep the price of gold within a narrow range in order to get the most out of the IMF purchase if that is to happen as discounted wholesale .

Yet when we'll look back at this event a few months from now , what appears at first as a bearish event for gold might end up being rather bullish if that gold is to be snatched without ever hitting the market . Not to mention that it would give a lot of momentum to those supporting the fearfull consequences of moneytisation worldwide and focus the attention even more on China's strategy to divest from the US dollar .

While this is going on the G20 is preparing to meet again in the US and it would'nt come as a surprise to ear about this sale then .

On the other hand September marks the end of fiscal year in the US and as we already know the deficit should be some $200 billion less then anticipated earlier this yearand amount to over $1.5 trillion , yet as much as this is good news... it also means that new speculation on next year deficit will start hitting the street and just as well mounting pressure will be applied on the US from would be buyer of US treasury bonds to reduce next year deficit to a minimum , this will come at a time where international protectionism is growing and where China is itself engaged in mounting trade dispute with the US while they are at the same time the major supporters of US treasury auctions .

While they can't afford to lead the US dollar lower in their own interest they could eventualy force the US into further moneytisation in order to prove their point by being absent from treasury auctions at critical times thus forcing the government to reconsider some of their fiscal policies .

If any of this should happen the price of gold might increase wildly at times over next year .

It's all speculation on my part but i don't think it's so wild to imagine as the world is still under the influence of toxic assets and convulsing under the effect of moneytisation .

For all the improvement the stimulus money as injected in worlwide economies it remains to be seen how some countries will be able to deal with the growing debt inflicted by this policy , some talk about inflation others about deflation , but it might not be the same worldwide , if China manages to spur it's internal consumption to a certain point we might witness different consequences in different part of the world and huge inflation might be the lot of those economies having to carry huge debts , and this could linger for quite some time untill some currencies become mear shadows of what they were .

If worldwide growth manages to remain within a decent distance of what it previously was over the last decade even if it concentrates only in part of the world such as Asia then the next decade could see a major shift in the transfer of wealth and conuntries producing commodities in the remaining part of the world could still see some growth while seeing even more debasing of their financial industry and industrial production .

Regards !

Tec