How many people do you know who have lived through a "real bust?" No, I don't mean the dotcom bomb or the Asian currency crisis.

I don't mean the 9-11 recession or the '87 market crash... or even the '74 market meltdown or the late '70s oil crisis.

I mean a full-on social and economic reversal.

Of course we haven't seen anything on that scale since the Great Crash of '29. And many of the witnesses alive to those events are long gone from our lives.

But do you remember... how your parents or maybe your grandparents talked about those times? They never seemed to forget.

How many "Depression survivors," for instance, still save scraps of paper and bits of string... rinse off tin foil... and wouldn't dare toss leftovers?

When you grow up knowing only good times, it's easy to forget that "thrift" and "value" were bedrock American values. And harder still to imagine an America that returns to those ideals.

But see, it's not the little busts and downturns that change behavior. It's the BIG ones that do it. And sometimes in long-lasting and radical ways.

Take Japan, today.

In the late 1980s, you might forget that Japan was busy buying up American companies at a breakneck pace. They too felt pretty rich. And we were sure they were out to eat our lunch.

Then their market went through its own credit meltdown. Just like the one we're seeing now, but on a smaller scale.

They have yet to recover.

Not just economically, with a stock market that's basically flat-lined for the last nearly two decades. But culturally too.

Already high Japanese savings rates exploded... car sales plunged by half and remain as low... cabbage long ago replaced meat on Tokyo dinner tables... middle class Japanese started washing their clothes in used bathwater.

Are these the destitute Japanese?

No. This is the well-employed Japanese middle class. With good jobs and incomes. But working and scrimping as though they could lose everything all over again.

What happens if the same consumer malaise locks into place here in America? A much longer recession or even financial depression than anybody is willing to imagine.

Yet there's ample proof this is exactly the radical shift underway...

In the bedrooms and boardrooms across America, we're waking up to a very scary realization. All those big houses we bought... the cars and fancy techno gadgets... the fancy clothes and furniture... the $100 dinners and $5,000 vacations... and suddenly we're looking back and realizing... we've got so little to show for it.

Look, it's not hard to do the math. Over the last three decades, we've taken one of the greatest industrial nations in history... and traded it off piece by piece. In its place, we became the world's #1 shopping nation.

Not makers, but buyers.

Even now, we're facing an economy in which 70% of our economic output depends on consumer buying.

No buyers, no recovery.

And yet, unlike other recent minor busts and even major corrections, the lesson hundreds of millions of strapped Americans are learning all over again is that same lesson our forebearers learned after 1929.

Namely, that the law of personal and financial responsibility is as irreversible as the law of gravity. And it's the egg that no bureaucrat — no matter how popular — and no multi-billion dollar bailout — no matter how large — can unscramble.

In short, the hearts and minds of the American consumer have been thrown into reverse. And it's this total psychological "snap" that will make a back-to-baseline conventional recovery impossible any time soon.

This is vital. Because, you see, a lot of Americans — and a lot of people in the rest of the world — are counting on credit-card carrying American shoppers to jumpstart the global economic engine all over again.

But it isn't going to happen. And you don't want to bank your investments on the idea that it will. Or you'll risk even bigger losses than many Americans have suffered already.

Consider, right now, total private consumer debt is nearly $2.5 trillion. How serious is that? Well, with the way "trillion" gets tossed around these days, it's hard to imagine.

But you can already start seeing the massive paradigm shift taking grip when you look deeper into day-to-day details...

• On New York's Madison Avenue, shops that used to sell $2,390 bed sheets and $2,400 handbags have packed up and slapped "For Rent" signs in their windows
• Penny-pincher clubs are back. And coupon-clipping sites are getting some of the highest traffic on the Web. Discount sales and all-you-can-eat buffets have lines going out the door
• Last holiday season was the slowest in four decades. Meanwhile, luxury products are "out," showing off how budget-wise you are is back "in"
• Big "box" stores continue to close at record rates too, while department store sales are down as much as 24%. The Gap? Sales are down 23%. Other clothing chains are down 22%
• What's more, U.S. cars sell slower than in 1982. For the first time in history, China sells more cars than we do. Keep in mind, about 20% of all the retail in the U.S. comes from car sales
• Planes can't sell seats in business or first class either. Not to mention a 20% drop in airline freight shipping. Meanwhile, train and truck shippers are in absolute freefall
• Even FedEx and UPS — slammed by the double-whammy of crashing buyer demand and no-shipment digital book, document, and movie delivery — have seen overnight shipping profits vaporize.

You don't need me to tell you that adds up to trouble. But how much trouble? Total U.S. retail sales have rolled back to levels we haven't seen since 2005.

Imagine if every single retail shop opened in the last three years shut down overnight. It's already that bad.

Here's the thing. A lot of people, from Wall Street to Washington, have a great deal invested in you believing we can reverse that trend.

I'm writing you today to reveal another possibility... that the freeze in consumer spending and the consumer economy could actually take many more years to thaw.

But first, let me just show the first of at least two reasons why this dangerous consumer crisis is about to get a lot worse before it gets better...

The "Multiplier" That Could Soon Double the Impact of this Downturn

The jobs that disappeared were the "multiplier effect" that turned a stock market bust into a decade-long downturn. Today's record setting job losses could do the same.

With an average of over 650,000 jobs disappearing in each of the first couple months alone... we're on pace to lose a total of 7.8 million jobs just this year.

Boomers cancelling retirement... middle-aged workers swarming college job fairs... at one Ohio high school, over 700 people showed up for a janitorial job... these aren't people set to dive back into impulse shopping anytime soon.

In fact, just like in Japan in the early 1990s, Americans have started saving — if you can believe it — at record levels.

Just in the last year alone, we've socked away $545.5 billion. That's the biggest glut of cash going under the mattress since we first started tracking U.S. savings rates... back in 1959!

Foreboding? Very.

But there's a second "multiplier" on the way that could drive consumer spending — and any dream of a consumer-led recovery — even deeper into the ground.

Even though you're not hearing much about this at all from political publicists or the TV talking heads...

You already know by now, I'm sure, that it was the first wave of defaults in "subprime" mortgages that sparked today's economic meltdown...

What you might NOT know is that there's a whole second wave of just as toxic mortgages in the pipeline... in a glut just as large... and potentially just as far reaching. You can see it for yourself, in fact, in the simple illustration below...

You can see that the first peak in subprime loan "resets" arrived smack dab in the middle of 2008. And many billions in bank write-downs... along with trillions of dollars in market losses immediately followed.

This second wave of toxic property loans, however — a flood what you call "option ARM" or "Alt-A" loans — won't hit peak resets until 2011.

What are these second kinds of toxic loans? These were the fancy mortgages snapped up by middle Americans... to buy homes nobody imagined would be worth a fraction of their selling price, just two years later.

And like I said, just like subprime, these loan contracts also carry a "reset" risk in the fine print, when already high monthly mortgage payments could as much as double — right at the height of the second biggest market meltdown since the Great Depression.

Millions more consumers will freeze up as their finances go over the cliff... more bank losses will drag down even more so-called "blue chip" retirement portfolios... and the impact of the consumer bust I've told you about will get "multiplied" yet again. Millions more Americans could lose everything.

China's "Dirtiest Secret"
Gets Revealed

Vital to the idea of a global recovery... is the idea that China, at least, is still growing. And that, just maybe, they can help pull the rest of us out of this crisis by our bootstraps.

Is that a real possibility? Not by a long shot. And if you're placing any faith in a whole new Asian miracle, I urge you right now to reconsider. Especially if your wealth depends on it, as it might — in more ways than you imagine.

Consider Detroit. It once looked like a global mecca for capitalism and monument to progress, too. Have you seen it lately? It's practically a ghost town.

Now imagine the world's next industrial ghost towns — and you might be shocked to discover that they're already turning up. But not in America. Rather, in the Chinese provinces of Shenzhen, Guangzhou, or Dongguan.

See, while China's head honchos tout a rosier future for the "Red Dragon" economy than seems possible... over 15,000 factories in those areas I just named alone have already shut down... with many more slated to close over the months ahead.

It's an epidemic that's happening all across Asia, though you might not be hearing about the full scale of their meltdown on the evening news.

Half of China's toy factories have shut down. In fact, at least 67,000 factories overall closed in the last six months of 2008. With another 60,000 factories in the Wen Zhou Province alone about to shut down.

As many as 27 million Chinese are already out of work — with 20 million of them streaming out of the cities and back to the abandoned farms of the Chinese countryside.

It's not hard to figure out why...

China's Secret "Stealth" Depression

See, the "party line" coming out of Beijing says that even with the downturn... and with Americans not buying China's output... Chinese GDP could still grow another 8% this year.

But the facts on the ground tell a different story...

• According to Merrill Lynch, China's economy didn't grow at all in the last quarter of 2008. And it's still contracting fast, ever since the start of this year
• Of course, official Chinese growth last year topped 9%. But if you did the math the way we do in the U.S. and they do in Europe, the real growth rate — for the last three months of 2008 — was zero
• Keep in mind that China needs at least 9% growth to soak up the 24 million new Chinese workers who come of age each year — something even the Chinese Premier doesn't like to mention.

Why the lies? It's a huge con game. Says expat Prof. Tian Xie of Drexel University, China's elaborate campaign to falsify GDP numbers "is all part of a sophisticated strategy to cheat the world." But China can't keep up the deception much longer...

• In one huge textile factory — as big as 31 football fields and with 4,000 workers — the owner racked up $200 million in debts. Afraid to tell Beijing, he burned his records and fled the country
• Officially, nobody's protesting about losing their jobs or going broke. Unofficially, dozens of riots have broken out in front of closed Chinese factories
• 1,000 schoolteachers clashed with police over wages in early January. Hundreds of workers swarmed a city government building in Foshan, demanding back pay
• In Northern China, a TV journalist covered a story about a hostile labor takeover in a textile mill. Local authorities immediately punished him and pulled the story
• Creditors showed up to seize equipment from deadbeat borrowers at a factory in southern China. Police broke up a dozen riots in the aftermath, all of which they hid from the newspapers.

This isn't a modern-day coincidence. In the days of emperors, Chinese generals lied about battle kills... to keep from losing their own heads. In the days of Mao, farmers lied about crop results... even as 20 million Chinese starve to death.

Today, local bureaucrats fudge the books to get ahead in the Party... and the top dogs in Beijing lie to hang onto foreign investors. Padded revenue reports... fake production numbers... overstated employment... it's all part of standard practice.

To say so might not sound politically correct. But ask anyone who's done business there. Keeping a double set of books in China isn't just common, it's considered "good strategy."

Meanwhile, northeast China — home to 110 million people — looks more and more like rusted-out Detroit... only at ten times the scale.

You've also got under-regulated Chinese banks hiding as much as $500 billion in bad debts — China's own "subprime" loans to small businesses and Asian property speculators...

Plus, you've got a $40 billion tab left over from the Beijing Olympics... and a $140 billion tab for rebuilding Sichuan after their 2008 earthquake…

Here's the bottom line:

China — with 80 different car makers to bail out... tens of thousands of huge socialist-era factories... and 100s of millions of workers to support — has a big problem.

Much bigger than they're letting on.

And it's not just China about to take an even bigger hit.

Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam. Thailand. Malaysia. And Indonesia... just to name a few, all soared thanks to the China boom. Now they're going bust in kind.

Korean production alone is already down 14%. Japan is off 20%. Taiwan's exports have dropped 28.5%. Singapore is already deep into recession. Thailand's decayed into political crisis.

Until U.S. and European consumers come out of their shells, the new Asian meltdown doesn't end any time soon.

You remember how hard the Asian currency crisis hit U.S. markets in 1997. A total "miracle" reversal in the Far East could have much greater impact, especially in today's already battered environment.

And you'll want to take steps immediately to protect yourself, before that new wall of worry reverberates back here in the U.S.

While Shanghai stocks haven't yet collapsed anything close to what we're seeing on this side of the ocean... it won't be long before they catch up.

Neither one requires you to bet in or against Chinese stocks or China's market as a whole. Rather, both focus on the Asian market that could backpedal even faster — Japan.

I'm sure you remember the "Asian Contagion" currency crisis of 1997 and how fast that unraveled. Between 35-40% disappeared from Asian indexes.

Dr. Kurt Richebächer.

You may remember Kurt.

After all, it was Kurt who first predicted today's financial meltdown — at a time when the Dow crested 11,000 and property values still went up — almost to the letter, back in early 2006.

And it was Kurt who called the collapse of the Internet bubble in January 2000, only to see it happen two months later... and Kurt who called the collapse of the Brazilian currency in 1998... as well as his call on the Asian crisis in September 1996.

Brace yourself for America's "Minsky Moment."

What's a "Minsky Moment?"

Said great American economist Hyman Minsky, it's easy to take on big risks when times are good. Financially, that includes big debts.

But pretty soon, the risks get bigger than the reward... the bills come due... and you have to start dumping assets just to cover your tail.

And that's exactly what's about to happen now. This is the big secret behind today's endless cycle of booms and busts.

Every bubble has its breaking point .

It's what's already happened to real estate. It's what's happened with the big selloff in stocks.

And now it's what’s about to happen to the U.S. dollar too... and quite possibly, the idea of America itself.
The Giant Pin About to "Pop" the American Bubble

The U.S. dollar has been the world's "go to" currency for decades, backed by faith in the U.S. economy. But if you get paid in dollars or save in dollars, you have to ask yourself...

How much longer can that last?

Kurt himself wrote his warnings well before this current crisis sent markets collapsing. See, even back in 2006, experts at the Fed were already hinting about "positive inflation" as a tool to fight off an economic collapse.

And Kurt was already warning us against it.

He warned too about the insane debt leverage we were handing over to China and other foreign lenders.

You've seen what's happened since.

The Fed not only ignored these warnings... they're actively moving us down the same destructive path as before... but at a pace unprecedented in history.

I'm sure you can see where that's taking us, too.

With trillions pouring into the black hole of badly managed banks... and pouring into U.S. treasuries, in the form of more loans from the already agitated Chinese.

This cannot continue.

I urge you to protect yourself and your money while you can. Especially now, with just shy of $11 trillion in debt already piled up... another $8.5 trillion already committed to the bailouts... and $3.6 trillion more in new spending on the table.

Think about it this way...

Even now, we're fueling our own "rescue" with unequaled borrowing from overseas. But just how much faith would you put in an I.O.U. from a friend in our situation?

Shrinking job prospects, a sky-high credit card bill, a chronic gambling problem, nervous creditors, and a bad habit of lying about the balance of his bank account... we've spent billions on the bailouts, but haven't done much at all to fix the core weaknesses.

Even Obama admits this can't go on forever.

He recently told 60 Minutes, "If we don't get a handle on this and also start looking at our long-term deficit projections, at a certain point people will stop buying those Treasury bills."

You'd better believe it.

China alone backs U.S. spending with dollar reserves worth nearly $2 trillion. These are the loans we use to fund our bailouts and more. What happens when those loans no longer look like a good deal?

With China slipping into crisis mode, that day could come a lot sooner than you might think. Already, China's prime minister Wen Jiabao says he's "worried." And both China and Russia have already called for a new world reserve currency.

All it would take is a shift of opinion...

And the dollar could go into freefall overnight!

In fact, no matter what our overseas lenders say in public... privately they've already started slinking toward the exits. Three times in the last four months of 2008, they dumped U.S. long term securities. Not just the Chinese, but Japan, India, the Saudis, and Europe... just to name a few.

When even your dollar savings aren't safe... what do you do?

Gold is obviously one smart place to go when dollars are headed for a sudden down spiral. For instance, consider right now that just 1.1% of China's "other" foreign currency reserves are in gold... compared to nearly 80% gold in our foreign currency reserves here in the U.S.

If China decided to try to match our GDP-to-Gold ratio, that would soak up three-quarters of the world's total gold production for an entire year!

Sound crazy?

They're talking about it.

Hou Huimin, vice chair of the China Gold Association says, "China should have at least several thousand tons of gold in its reserves, five to six times the officially announced 600 tons."

Even if China switched over to 3% gold reserves — triple the gold reserves they hold now — that would send the bullion price through the skylights.

Hold gold and you could ride that trend.

Look, here's the bottom line.

I know you can easily find "experts" out there with two-bit explanations of what's going on. I know you're already swarmed by headlines and financial shows, newsletters, magazines and more.

Every one of them with something to say. With some who are right on the money and others who haven't a clue. But the brand new Richebächer Society isn't any of that.

The idea behind our alliance is much more simple...

See, we don't plan to wait for someone else to "fix" this mess. We don't plan to sit by and watch it ravage our wealth, either. We're not looking for tin-pan insights or cheap thrills.

Instead I've organized what could be the best team of analysts in the business — lead by a real economist with 26 years of top analysis experience — to take a whole new kind of look at what's really going on.

This is not insight for small-time players. This is advanced and serious research. For equally serious and enlightened men and women.

With a wall of bailout reserves backing up in the vaults of stingy banks... and U.S. consumers too terrified right now to spend... we're watching prices fall in most big assets, not take off.

Yet gold is creeping upward. Why? And what's the truth about gold and the role it could play in protecting your wealth from the rest of this crisis? Many experts are getting it wrong.

Rob Parenteau has agreed to email you targeted updates every week on everything vital that's happening with the "parachute plays" outlined in your member library... with the economy... or with the other opportunities you'll discover as a Richebächer Society subscriber.

Given that Rob is not just an economist with 24 years of experience as a global investment manager... but also the senior proprietor and sole founder of a macro-strategy investment firm... that's an enormous "members-only" advantage right there.

And worth a fortune, all by itself.

Easily, a research service like that is worth at least $549 per year. However, you'll get Rob's weekly briefings free for a full year, along with everything else, when you accept my special Richebächer Society invitation.

You'll Also Start Getting Our Elite Monthly Bulletins:

For nearly two decades, theRichebächerLetterhas been a trusted "insider's" resource to some of the world's most intelligent and advanced investors and market commentators in the world.

With Dr. Richebächer gone, we had to withhold the letter until we could find someone as skilled at stripping away the mainstream fluff... and as brilliant at unearthing and revealing the kinds of powerful, one-of-a-kind insights the good doctor himself used to produce.

But with economist Robert Parenteau guiding the Richebächer Society, we finally have someone who helps the great tradition of the Richebächer Lettercontinue, bringing fresh new and in-depth analysis to our small circle of elite readership, every month without fail.

Dr. Richebächer pounded out his first issues and analysis on a typewriter. Today, we have access to technology the good Doctor never imagined.

Every member will immediately receive a full transcript of Dr. Richebächer's now-famous "Last Interview" with investing expert Eric Fry, recorded live at Kurt's home on the French Riviera.

You'll read as Kurt exposes one prescient forecast after another about the financial crises... which at the time, had yet to unravel. From his call about the peak in real estate... to the impending implosion of credit markets and the Wall Street catastrophe... and quite a bit more.

What's especially shocking, though, is how much more we're in for if Kurt's already stunning forecasts continue to prove true. You'll see what I mean when you read the full interview.

But you can download your copy immediately, free with the rest of your Richebächer Society materials, just as soon as you agree to sign on.

Your membership also includes a "virtual key" to the final seventeen and a half years of Dr. Richebächer's personal market research and analysis. It's all there, available in a fully searchable online archive.

This is like having your own veritable Encyclopedia of Modern Markets and Economics.

In my opinion, this is a priceless resource.

But if I had to put a monetary value on it, the most natural thing to figure out what others would have paid to gain access to Dr. Richebächer's brilliant research over that same period — a total of $6,947.50, at standard subscription rates.

You'll pay nothing of the sort.

The entire seventeen-and-a-half year archive is yours to use as often as you like — including free access for a full year — just as soon as you accept my invitation.

Economist Rob Parenteau

When we lost Dr. Richebächer at age 88, we knew immediately that we couldn't rush the search for a spiritual torch-bearer and natural successor to his legacy.

Economist Robert Parenteau more than fills those shoes.

You'll see why when you dig into the printed and audio "first interview" with Rob that's also included once you sign on to try the Richebächer Society.

Even now, Rob sees even greater debt-driven dangers lurking on our horizon. The good news is that, he also has a very simple strategy that he can share with you, including things you can do now — immediately — to prepare.

Few are willing or able to share these details. But Rob will reveal all.

Your Richebächer Society benefits will start arriving immediately. Look over our research. Start using the insights to safeguard your wealth.

You've got a full 30 days to decide for yourself if everything I've said about the new RichebächerSociety lives up to the deal. If I'm wrong or if it just turns out — for any reason — this isn't your cup of tea, shoot me an email or call the member's hotline. I'll send you a full refund, even if it's the last day of your trial period.

Of course, you'll still get to keep the free Parachute Portfolio Library, your copy of the interview transcripts with Dr. Richebächer and Rob Parenteau, the 218-page copy of The Demise of the Dollar and Why It’s Great For Your Investments, and all the issues and briefings you've already received.

No questions asked.