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Message: John Hussman: Post Crash Bubbles

Re: BCF

in response to by
posted on May 13, 2009 11:45PM


I haven"t posted for awhile But was introduced to a stock that I wouldn't mind some people's opinion on.Bronco (BCF).A friend introduced it to me last weekend & I watched it go up about 45 cent in less than a week.I emailed him to ask him where he got his imfo from.He told me he has a friend that is close to the Gas & Oil out in Edmonton that highly recommended it.I did buy some today on the pull back.If anyone knows anything about this stock I would not mind hearing about it.

If I were to venture a guess (and that's all it is) I'd say BCF is a likely takeover target for a major or mid-tier looking to improve its long term reserve position in the sands. These stocks are badly beaten down and represent reasonable long term value. OTOH, absent a takeover, I don't see compelling reasons to own any of them. Production costs are high, water is an ongoing issue, financing is tough etc. etc. All this adds up to a hard-ball takeover, not a premium deal for shareholders. One clue would be to look at the number of options issued at low strike prices. If you see a lot of these, mgmt. may be setting themselves up for a sale.

I notice 3 senior people have left this year with rather sparse explanations given. If I felt the company would soon be for sale and my options were deep underwater, I'd probably leave too.

All this is just me speculating - I haven't done much more than glance at a few NR's and apply common logic based on current conditions. As always, DYODD.

ebear

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