Re: John Hussman: Post Crash Bubbles (what's different this time?)
in response to
by
posted on
May 13, 2009 12:07PM
We may not make much money, but we sure have a lot of fun!
These kind of long-term historical comparisons are valuable, and I appreciate the work of Tim Wood, Frank Barbara, John Hussman etc., but I can't get away from the feeling that this time is different. Not better or worse, just different.
It's those differences I'm trying to identify, and being lazy by nature, I'd like to find someone who has already done the math, so to speak, and factored these differences into some sort of technical picture that supplements the traditional long-term metrics most technicians seem to use.
So, to that end, here's my list of things that are different from previous cycles, where generally speaking, the further back you go the more pronounced the differences tend to be. Feel free to add your own observations and thoughts to the list.
1. Gold standard. Domestically not since the 30's - internationally, not since the 70's.
2. Broader public participation through mutual funds, 401K's etc.
3. Globalization of trade and commerce with greater access to foreign markets
4. Demographics - specifically the Baby Boom
5. Technological advances (electronic trading)
6. Deregulation of banking and finance
7. Shift from private to public equity ownership of companies
8. Increase in overall debt to equity ratios (growth of junk bond market)
9. Increased global trading in commodities
10. Increased govt. intervention in all markets
I'm sure there's more but that's all I can think of at the moment.
ebear