I expect we'll see more of this in the not too distant future. The question that goes unasked when our media covers these events is simply "what's in it for them?" We know what's in it for us, but why should Venezuela, Nigeria, or for that matter Mexico or Saudi Arabia continue exporting a valuable, non-renewable resource when all they get in return is paper promises?

These countries need energy to run their own economies, and with peak oil an imminent reality it makes sense to hold on to what you have. From their point of view a drop in production is a good thing. It means more oil for later, or to sell when it's more expensive.

I find it remarkable that so few western commentators try to see it from the producers' standpoint. I suppose they do in private, but they're up against a political wall as far as making those views public. That's why the best people to listen to are those with no axe to grind and no job to protect.

Factor this in when you calculate remaining oil reserves. There's physical decline, and there's political decline. The second follows from the first and will act to accelerate the overall trend.

ebear