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Message: Derivatives: A $700+ Trillion Bubble Waiting to Burst

" According to the Bank for International Settlements [BIS], the global Over the Counter [OTC] derivatives market has grown almost 65% from $414.8 trillion in December, 2006 to $683.7 trillion in June of 2008. On the BIS’s own website, there are no updated figures for the notional derivatives market since June 2008, so we can likely assume, with some margin of safety, that this market has now grown to more than $700 trillion. "


A few questions out of ignorance



Since there are no updated figures for the derivatives market since june 2008 ie. since the markets and financial meltdown occured could'nt it be argued that the derivatives market shrank also ? and where would the argument take us in such case ?

In any case where would the argument lead us if the derivatives market was now around $500-$600 Trillon instead ?

How about what is referred to as the underlying assets and indexes i'd say they shrank by $40-$50 trillions as was said ,so would'nt the derivatives have followed ?

Should we look at the relative value of the derivatives vs the underlying in june 2008 compared to the relative value of same as of now ?

If so, how would it compare and what conclusion should be drawn from it ? Or are those questions just stupid out of ignorance ?

I don't pretend to have a answer but i'd be curious to read the argument made in the case of such an assumption .

Not being familiar with those accounting rules i will need to rely on the conclusions to come by the end of may if i recall, based on the financial stress test made in the US. I will also have to trust treasury secretary Geitner on his conclusions , at some point u need a minimal measure of confidence . It's not that have a lot of faith in those institutions that faill the trust of the population over the last couple of years , but at this point i can hardly envision a repeat of such events , that could be catastrophic in many ways .

I also trust the present US administration much more then the previous one who created this mess .

In any case i'm just asking , and if somebody as some answers and even if the conclusion is stupid questions please answer , i shall learn from it if i'm not to stupid to understand the answer , and if so u should'nt care i'll deal with it .

Thank's

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