in the years ahead i think we will return to a simpler, more spartan way of life. not because we want to, but because we have to.

I agree with this statement completely, in fact I'll use it as a springboard to respond to all the other points raised regarding what may or may not lie ahead.

Start with a typical present day mining operation. You have a pit 3 miles long, 2 miles wide and a 1/2 a mile deep. This is not by choice, but is dictated by the fact that all the high grade deposits have been exploited. Now think of the energy and capital it takes to run an operation like that and what it means for the price of the end product.

Skip ahead to a typical deep sea drilling operation: a massive steel and concrete structure costing billions to build, operate and maintain. Next consider the size of today's oil tankers, and the facilities needed to build and operate them.

My point is, this is all happening on a gigantic scale at enormous cost. At some point the law of diminishing returns kicks in. You expend a barrel of oil to recover a mere barrel of oil. You pay $50/ton extracting a mineral that only fetches $50/ton because the things you make from it (like cars) are no longer affordable on a scale that makes them economic to produce. End of the road.

Now add another estimated 4-5 billion people over the next few decades and right away you can see the problem. Everything it takes to support them, from energy to materials to food is going to get increasingly scarce. Meantime, how are all these people going to earn the money to pay for increasingly expensive basic needs? At some point the system breaks down, so unless you radically redefine the way in which you produce and consume things, you have a catastrophe of the first order in the offing.

That's the big picture, and it's almost upon us. The solution will not be found in improvements to present techniques. That phase is almost over. That's what a giant offshore rig or a supertanker IS: the final result of incremental improvement pushing technology to it's outer limit beyond which it becomes impractical, or impossible to proceed.

What we are witnessing today is the beginning of a change in the ordering of human affairs on the scale of the industrial revolution of the 19th century. Prior to that we had centuries of slow territorial expansion which ultimately filled all livable spaces on the planet. It was the technological revolution of the industrial age that made it possible to extend that period of growth by maximizing the resources available within those now fully occupied spaces. We are now approaching the end of that period.

It is no easier today to predict the ultimate direction these changes will take than it was for a 19th century dweller to predict the end result of the introduction of steam power. The immediate benefits were obvious, but the long run effects were beyond comprehension. Men flying through the air and ultimately landing on the moon? Entire cities destroyed by a single blast? Apart from a few science fiction authors, who could have foreseen that?

In short, if we're to continue as an intelligent species living on this planet, we have to consider all of these things. Small changes to existing methods are not going to get us there. We need a completely new approach, and the time to start thinking about it is now.

OK, I nearly fell off my soapbox there, so I'll just leave it at that.

ebear