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Message: A Re-test of the Nov. 21 Lows is Imminent

A Re-test of the Nov. 21 Lows is Imminent

posted on Jan 22, 2009 01:14PM

My broker's Quantitative Analist had the following comment:

It looks like a re-test of the November 21, 2008 lows is imminent. We expect the lows to hold, and if they hold in the context below, it will be a very positive development for markets.

"Related market behavior will be key. If the re-test is accompanied by:

· Lower highs on 10-year US T-note and 30-year US T-bond prices (watch TLH-US & TLT-US)

· Higher lows on Junk bond prices (watch JNK-US and HYG-US)

· Higher lows on Investment-Grade Corporate Debt (watch LQD-US)

· Higher lows on Preferred Shares (watch PFF-US)

· Lower highs on the VIX index, MOVE index and TED Spread

In my opinion, if we get all or most of these indicators behaving in the above fashion, it will be a strong indication that the November 21 lows are very durable.

In my view, the news on Bank of America (BAC-US) this morning is not good news – BUT the market is rallying in the face of it. A market that trades higher on bad news has to be seen as a positive."

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