No such message found

Welcome To The 300 Club HUB On AGORACOM

We may not make much money, but we sure have a lot of fun!

Free
Message: Re: everyone on to this

Dec 01, 2008 11:30AM
3
Dec 01, 2008 01:57PM

Re: everyone on to this

posted on Dec 02, 2008 12:00AM

I may be wrong but does this not show that these people have announced already that they will be taking delivery, and have the money deposited to do so....not that it will bust the comex as they will likely come up with some plan but these are announced deliveries which are way up over the average people going about normal business...

It sure looks that way, but appearances can be deceiving. What is stopping them from taking delivery (warehouse receipts) then swapping those with someone else who has to produce gold for delivery? Look at the big players in that report, then ask yourself what their motives might be.

Not sure how anyone would play this besides buying gold or silver, which many here are doing, have done, or are looking to in the future....

Exactly, which is why I'm suspicious. Allow me to explain:

First of all, I've been hearing about the Comex short position for a long time now, and yet nothing ever happens. It does at least "look" like something is happening now, so perhaps I shouldn't have dismissed it so casually. My bad.

That said, a rhetorical question seems in order:

If you were the Fed/Banking Cartel trying to suppress the price of gold in the face of huge credit problems, and you knew this "short squeeze" story was out there gathering momentum, what would you do?

You might want to create the appearance of a massive squeeze, right? Head 'em off at the pass, so to speak. Now why would you do that? Well, perhaps to get all the gold bugs on board a situation you had control of, then hand them all massive losses and utterly discredit them in the eyes of their supporters.

That's the possible why, now for the possible how.

First of all, you should recognize that not all these so-called naked shorts are actually naked. For this I refer to Antal Fekete:

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/11...

scroll down to where it says Bull in bear’s skin

Now, imagine all these banks (that's mostly who it is) standing for delivery all of a sudden. Why would they do that? Haven't they already been criticized for holding too much in reserve out of the monies lent to them by the Fed? So then what? They're going into the gold market to acquire further reserves? It doesn't make sense.

So my guess (and that's all it is - I don't hold myself out as any kind of expert) is they're simply following instructions to create the appearance of a squeeze. Why? To get everyone in the gold camp on the long side so they can be beaten (yet again) with the ugly stick.

This makes more sense to me than an actual force majeure, which would indeed be big news.

Let's not forget who we're dealing with. This is the GOVERNMENT + CENTRAL BANKS. So, who's on the other side of that trade? Who is big enough to go up against THAT particular tour de force with any hope of winning?

The other point I would make is that right now gold is way above it's long term trend line and tracing out a downward channel. Gold at 650 is still a long term bull market, which I believe is where the force large enough to oppose what's happening (debasement of currencies/suppression of gold) awaits.

This is not a play in three acts. It's more like a 9 inning ball game where we've only just thrown the first pitch. As I survey the gold community, I see a lot of impatience and foot stomping. The desire for vindication as a prevailing sentiment runs interference on sound analysis. Sound analysis calls for a bull market stretching to decades, not weeks or months. Gold could retrace here with or without the legendary "hidden hand" of the Fed. If it gets an extra shove, that simply points to the desperation of their situation, but it doesn't mean that fact is widely recognized. If it were, gold would be at 2000 already, and it's not.

Anyway, we'll know soon enough.

Now if someone (not me) wants to do a bit more detective work, maybe they should look at the options market to see what the put/call ratio is on the current month. I'm guessing there's way more puts than calls. These guys can never resist piggybacking a trade, and thus give themselves away. Also, if you're expecting to take a loss on a long position, you might want to offset it with short options. You'll have to dig for that info though. Start with Tokyo. They won't do it in their own backyard, that's for sure. Or maybe they will... they're a pretty brazen bunch.

And please, don't go taking this as some sort of investment advice. I just make it up as I go along. Well, actually I try to think like my enemy. Something I learned from that Sun Tsu guy. Not the Chinese philosopher - the other Sun Tsu in World Of Warcraft. Man, he's good...LOL!

ebear




2
Dec 02, 2008 03:02AM
1
Dec 02, 2008 07:20AM
Share
New Message
Please login to post a reply