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Message: Steel ?

Steel ?

posted on Oct 31, 2008 01:22PM


http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/co...

Steel’s Worst Performer Probing A Bottom?
Written by Brad Zigler
Friday, 31 October 2008 12:34

We got a little hint of reinflation in our real-world gauge (see "Computing Inflation In Real Time" at) yesterday, but it'll take a lot more braking of the deflationary trend before a bottom in asset values can be called. Annualized monetary inflation ticked up seven-tenths of a percent to 8.4% by Thursday's close.

U.S. Monetary Inflation Vs. Gold

One particularly buoyant asset in Thursday's market was Russian mining and metal company Mechel OAO (NYSE: MTL), which topped the list of percentage gainers. The American Depositary Shares rose $3.40, or nearly 60%, to close at $9.08 on bargain hunting.

Mechel's ADS, like most steel producers, has been battered in recent weeks, dropping 73% below its 200-day moving average, one of the worst performance records of AMEX Steel Index constituents. Of the 27 issues comprising the index, only AK Steel Holding Corp. (NYSE: AKS) has fared worse, and then just by basis points. As of yesterday's close, Mechel's year-to-date loss was 13% worse than that of the Market Vectors Steel ETF, the exchange-traded portfolio that tracks the AMEX Steel Index.

Mechel OAO (MTL) Vs. Market Vectors Steel ETF (SLX)

Mechel's shares were boosted by news that a deal had been inked with Chinese state-backed Minmetals, which calls for joint efforts in key projects such as the construction of a rail and structural steel mill at Chelyabinsk and the building of a new coal mining complex.

After a weak Friday opening, Mechel shares rebounded from profit-taking mode to speculative buying, and at last look was extending Thursday's gain by as much as 82 cents, or 9%.

Steel yourself for a wild ride to come.

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